Europe Economics Update Capital controls: vital stopgap or dangerous precedent? While capital controls could be crucial to preventing the collapse of the Cypriot banking system in the coming weeks, their persistence or more widespread use would threaten to undermine the basic... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 5.7% m/m rebound in February's durable goods orders, which was above the 3.9% consensus forecast and a bit below our 6.5% call, is not quite as good as it looks. Nevertheless, business investment... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's rate cut a cosmetic change Today’s cut in Turkey’s overnight lending rate is a cosmetic change, and doesn’t reflect an easing of policy. In fact, the central bank has tightened policy in recent weeks. And with domestic demand... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar. 13) March’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey was something of a mood dampener following a run of good news from the retail sector. With real pay continuing to be squeezed and little in the recent Budget to... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Small business survey raises some warning flags The headlines from the latest small business survey are positive but the detail includes some potentially worrying signs that the economic recovery may already be running out of steam. 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the record current account deficit a cause for concern? Tomorrow’s current account figures are likely to suggest that the hoped for rebalancing in the economy is still not happening and could put some renewed downward pressure on the pound. 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity rally reverses China’s equity prices have dropped since late February, bringing to an end the rally that started in early December. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank has resumed large-scale foreign exchange purchases to... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Positive wealth effects from equity gains still limited The latest Flow of Funds report, published today by the Bank of Japan, confirms that the surge in equity prices on the back of the “Abe trade” has boosted the value of household assets, but also that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade still sluggish Figures published today show a pick-up in world trade in January. But the growth rate remains slow by pre-crisis standards, and in many areas trade is still contracting. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Euro-zone to continue weighing on North Africa The deterioration in the French, Italian and Spanish economies in recent months has caused the growth outlook for North Africa to worsen. Coming on top of continued domestic political instability... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey (Mar 13) March’s Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey indicates that secondary property yields edged back up in recent months, reversing the previous quarter’s fall. If anything, this has increased the short... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bad weather could tip economy into triple-dip recession Although the current spell of cold and snowy weather is unlikely to have lasting economic consequences, a look back to previous cold snaps suggests that it might just be enough to make the difference... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Lower vehicle prices will help to drive sales Renewed falls in vehicle prices probably won’t reduce CPI inflation by much. But, along with the latest drop in financing rates and loosening in loan criteria, they provide support to our view that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rates to remain low for an extended period We suspect that the decision by the Colombian central bank to reduce interest rates by 50bps to 3.25% was an attempt to front-load rate cuts rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus: Disaster averted, but with lasting effects While the Cypriot banking package has averted imminent disaster, the episode will have damaging effects on Cyprus’s economy and has raised new questions over the stability of the currency union. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
