UK Economics Weekly 'Unbalanced' growth better than no growth? News last week of a record current account deficit and a sharp drop in the household saving ratio highlighted once again the failure of the UK economy to rebalance away from consumption-led growth... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China moves to manage shadow banking risks The latest tightening of rules on wealth management products will help manage risks building up in China’s shadow banking system. But the long-term route to reducing risk is careful liberalisation of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer tone but no action The crisis in Cyprus, together with the continued deterioration in indicators of euro-zone economic activity, should lead the ECB to strike a more supportive tone at this month’s press conference. But... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Increased use of rental incentives to set back office rent recovery An increase in rent-free periods on typical office leases in some European markets helps to explain why headline rents have recently been less responsive to changing occupier demand conditions than... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Foreign enthusiasm for Japan starts to fade The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board which concludes next Thursday (4th April) will be the first under Haruhiko Kuroda’s leadership. Unfortunately, the markets’ expectations of the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower yields will undermine investment case - but not this year House prices are rising at a quicker pace than rents, which is weighing on rental yields. But the reduction in yields is currently very gradual, while the total return from housing remains attractive... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan. 13) January's 0.2% m/m rebound in monthly GDP, which reversed a similar-sized contraction in the final month of last year, still leaves the economy struggling to advance at a rate anywhere close to the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt offer may be too little, too late Time is running out for Argentina to find a workable solution in a US court case which threatens to trigger a messy sovereign default. While the country’s fate is still technically in its own hands... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Mar.) The paths of narrow money in the US and euro-zone diverged further over the past few weeks. The Fed maintained the pace of its assets purchases. But in the eurozone, commercial banks continued... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Feb. 13) Land Registry data for February indicate that house prices are continuing to drift up. But while London will see further inflows of foreign capital seeking a safe haven, house prices in the rest of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch More QE unlikely this month, despite remit change The minutes of March’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting suggested that those against doing more QE will not have their minds changed easily. And the remit change in the Budget ended up being fairly... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don't underestimate Ukraine's exposure to Cyprus Most attention has focussed on the impact that the Cypriot bail-out could have on Russian depositors, but the deal may pose much bigger risks for Ukraine, which is already on the brink of a balance of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyprus crisis could exacerbate slowdown in Russia The loss to Russian investors from the levy on Cypriot bank deposits remains uncertain, but a plausible estimate is somewhere around €5bn. This is fairly small in the grand scheme of things and the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 13) The latest euro-zone monetary data showed more mixed developments in financial markets than in previous months. And there is still limited evidence of a pick-up in credit to the private sector. 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Retail Sales (Feb.) & Unemployment (Mar.) February’s German retail sales data suggest that spending rose in Q1. But sales are still falling compared to a year earlier and with March’s unemployment data confirming that the labour market... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
