UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s still weak level of consumer confidence tallies with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that the consumer sector is still fundamentally quite fragile. And looking ahead, we... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar. 13) Following two consecutive months of rises, house prices were flat in March. And with mortgage approvals now falling we doubt prices will show any sustained gains over 2013, despite the best efforts of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is back The People’s Bank of China (PBC) sat on the sidelines of foreign exchange markets in 2012 with net purchases close to zero for much of the year. But it has burst back into the game, buying $56bn of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Germany’s labour market weathering the euro-zone recession 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 12) Swiss GDP data for Q4 confirmed that, while growth is clearly slowing, the economy has continued to outperform most others in Europe. But we expect the economy to stagnate this year as problems in the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in spending fuelled by drop in saving The gentle recovery in household spending continued at the end of last year. However, the fact that households had to save less in the fourth quarter in order to raise their spending suggested that... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Future monetary tightening and the prospects for US equities We doubt that the US stock market will fare well in the run-up to, and during the early stages of, the next tightening of monetary policy. Admittedly, this would buck the trend since 1970, when, on... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long before US corporate profit margins are squeezed? Although the profit share in the US corporate sector is likely to have remained at a very high level in Q4 2012, we continue to expect margins to be squeezed this year. Further gains in the stock... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The stronger than expected pick-up in headline inflation to 1.2% in February, from 0.5% in January, mostly reflects higher gasoline and motor vehicle prices. It does not alter the near-term outlook... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Effects of sequester hard to see, but likely to be small It’s going to be almost impossible to observe what impact the sequester government spending cuts is having on the labour market. But we expect it will be fairly small. In any case, it is too soon for... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Italy and Spain missed their 2012 deficit targets by a small margin and timelier data point to further likely slippage in the initial stages of this year. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the recovery stronger than it looks? Those inclined to see the glass half-full have pointed out that the recovery looks healthier once you strip out the sectors that have had a disproportionately adverse effect on growth recently... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Acc., Bal. of Payments (Q4) & FPC Statement (Mar.) The national accounts confirmed that the UK economy finished last year on a very weak footing and kept alive the risk of a triple-dip recession. Meanwhile, the Financial Policy Committee’s statement... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch High expectations almost impossible to meet It is a near certainty that at least one of the two Bank of Japan Board meetings in April will result in a further loosening in monetary policy. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see both meetings... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Who will be the next Cyprus? Cyprus has shown that even the smallest members of the euro-zone can rock the single currency area. Slovenia is probably the next country most likely to be forced into a bailout programme, but Malta... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Domestic demand offsets external weakness Growth in Latin America has continued to rebound in recent months. But while the economy is on course to expand by about 3% y/y in Q1, the pace of growth remains far below the 5-6% y/y rates that were... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
