Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s fall in the German Ifo business climate indicator is another sign that the recovery in the euro-zone seen over the past six months or so might already be running out of steam. 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian industry to remain under pressure Today’s Colombian GDP data were strong, but they also signal that a boom in the natural resources sector is harming other parts of the economy – notably industry. As a result, we doubt that GDP will... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate hike a sign of desperation The Egyptian central bank’s move to raise interest rates in spite of the weak economy shows that policymakers have run out of options. Capital controls and FX intervention haven’t been sufficient to... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Polarisation of the retail property market is still rising Today’s better-than-expected retail sales data will do little to halt the polarisation in values evident in the IPD retail sub-markets. Even if this is the start of a modest spending upturn, until the... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Divergence between US and euro-zone widens further Preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys for March indicate that the recession in the euro-zone has deepened once more, while the recovery in the US has strengthened. There was a small rise in China’s... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Forward-looking guidance unlikely to save the day Following the rather vague change to the MPC’s remit announced in yesterday’s Budget, the ball is now back in the Bank of England’s court. But even if the Monetary Policy Committee decides to follow... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The increase in the number of existing home sales in February is more evidence that the housing recovery is continuing unabated. But the real news in this morning’s NAR numbers is the rise in the... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget measures amount to small beer for consumers While yesterday’s Budget resulted in a net giveaway to consumers, it did little to reduce the blow to household incomes which will be inflicted by further waves of austerity in the coming years. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The flat growth in January's retail sales volumes suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth seen at the end of last quarter appears to have continued into the first quarter. Accordingly, there... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Forecast change The Chancellor’s ‘Help to Buy’ scheme is likely to provide some additional support to average house prices, over and above that already coming from the Funding for Lending scheme. We have amended our... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q4) While Ireland impressively matched Germany’s economic expansion in 2012, the recent slowdown in the quarterly path of GDP is a reminder that the country still faces major challenges. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey leading the recovery, Russia lagging behind The latest activity data from Emerging Europe have been something of a mixed bag. Turkey is leading the recovery as a rebound in credit growth has fuelled domestic demand. Here, we think GDP growth... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s retail sales figures provided some positive news after the gloom of yesterday’s Budget. Meanwhile, the latest public finance figures gave some support to the OBR’s judgement that public... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The fall in the composite euro-zone PMI in March suggests that even before the recent uncertainty surrounding Cyprus’ future, the euro-zone economy had begun to contract more sharply. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today’s flash PMI from HSBC and Markit points to a rebound in manufacturing activity in March. The latest figures were stronger than expected but with other recent releases disappointing and the usual... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
