Europe Commercial Property Update Turkish property still a good bet, despite external vulnerabilities As the Turkish economy has grown increasingly dependent on short-term capital inflows to finance its current account deficit, direct investment has fallen. But while this suggests that foreign... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trade data show yen weakness has costs as well as benefits The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit widened to a new record in February, reflecting a mix of sluggishness in key export markets, Lunar New Year distortions and the impact of yen weakness on the cost... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand near-term outlook marred by drought New Zealand’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4. Reconstruction spending is finally ramping up, but growth will be held back by a drought that has hit North Island. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks with its QE plans for now The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – aground As expected, the backdrop to this Budget was yet another downward revision to the OBR’s growth forecasts. This downgrade strikes us as fully justified. Indeed, we are even more pessimistic than the... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP points to surprise slowdown in Q1 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy suggests that economic growth is slowing in the current quarter, much sooner than most had expected. 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Budget 2013 helps to keep house prices inflated We doubt many first-time buyers will be celebrating ‘Help to Buy’. Most just want to see house prices fall. But by saddling them with more mortgage debt, that is an outcome this policy will help... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) Despite the past weakening in existing home sales and rising number of properties for sale, the annual growth rate of house prices remained at 2.7% in February. As sales continue to trend lower... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the slowdown deepens A raft of weak activity data for February puts a big dent in hopes for a rebound in the Russian economy in Q1. What’s more, there are further signs that the slowdown is being driven as much by... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery strengthening The US economic recovery appears to be strengthening. Despite the impact of the payroll tax hike and higher gasoline prices on real incomes, first-quarter real consumption growth is on course to... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Sentiment has turned against EM assets Sentiment toward EM assets has turned negative over the last month despite the relatively upbeat performance of many developed markets. Equities have come off recent highs, currencies have mostly... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak South African rand leaves little room for rate cuts Concerns over the impact of a weak rand on inflation leaves the South African Reserve Bank with little room to cut interest rates over the coming months, despite the outlook for subdued economic... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Cyprus? The Cypriot Parliament’s overwhelming rejection of the proposed levy on bank deposits adds to the uncertainty surrounding the future of Cyprus and increases the risk of the country eventually exiting... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) While March’s MPC minutes revealed that the three members who voted for more QE last month remained on their own in calling for more stimulus, we continue to think that the Committee will do more... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
