Middle East & North Africa Economics Update High food inflation could lead to subsidy reform slippage Food inflation in the resource-poor Arab countries should peak in the coming months, albeit at high rates, before falling back in early 2014. But in the near-term, the risk that high inflation... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for Italian property yields? Data for the final quarter of 2012 show that the upward trend in Italian office and retail property yields paused. Yet both the current political impasse and the poor outlook for occupier demand... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New exchange system won’t solve Venezuela’s dollar drought Venezuela’s new foreign exchange system will do nothing to reduce the economy’s reliance upon high oil prices and petro-loans from China. If either of these props give way, “Chavismo” will quickly... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2013 Confidence is rising, but business leaders in China are less upbeat about conditions for their own firms than they are about the wider economy. This suggests that sentiment may be running ahead of... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Much lower oil prices needed for strong recovery The $10 decline in the price of a barrel of Brent since early February reflects the faltering in the world economy and, most recently, the fresh worries about the euro-zone triggered by the crisis in... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rate cuts still possible later this year Although the Central Bank of Nigeria left interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, we still think that monetary easing will come onto the agenda later this year. However, a combination of loose fiscal... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Homebuilding volumes increased in February and, despite the homebuilder recovery coming up against a few snags, there’s good reason to think that the rebound in construction activity has much further... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's disappointing 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes suggest that industrial production might have struggled to rebound from December's decline. Thankfully, wholesale activity... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The growth rates of broad money, including our own measure of M3, have slowed recently, even as the Fed has expanded its quantitative easing. We suspect this decline reflects a fall in the... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy gets interesting Monetary policy in Latin America has suddenly become interesting. Having kept interest rates on hold for over three years, Mexico unexpectedly cut borrowing costs earlier this month. Meanwhile, Brazil... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil prices still too high for comfort The past few weeks have seen the re-emergence of two key factors that we expect to undermine oil prices further over the course of the year, namely a faltering in the world economy and a renewed flare... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Is a mansion tax a good idea? An annual tax on residential property is in many ways a good idea. But the proposed mansion tax is not the best way to go about it. A better option would be to reform the council tax system to ensure... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) & Italian Industrial Prod. (Jan.) March’s small rise in the German ZEW index left it at a high level. But as fears for Italy and Cyprus hit sentiment in future, we doubt that Germany’s recovery will be as strong as the survey now... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s central bank becoming hamstrung by macro risks The Reserve Bank of India stuck to the script and eased monetary policy today. Looking ahead, the market consensus is for another 25bp cut before year-end. However, we expect a long policy hold. While... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Restrained development to limit rises in office vacancy rates... mostly In most European office markets, development pipelines have changed by little over the past year and have thus remained small. That should ensure that new supply this year does not unduly exacerbate... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
