Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slows, but private sector still strong The Saudi economy slowed sharply in Q4, but the breakdown of the GDP data shows that the non-oil private sector remains robust. Looking ahead, fiscal stimulus and rapid credit growth should support... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still plenty of upside for gold The gold market was hit yesterday both by the prospect of an early end to the Fed’s quantitative easing and by speculation that Cyprus could be the first of the troubled euro-zone countries to sell... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian rates to stay on hold despite inflation risks Although Bank Indonesia kept interest rates on hold today, there is a growing risk that rising headline inflation will cause the central bank to hike rates before the end of the year. However... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE property investment data: a mixture of good and bad news Emerging European property investment markets seem to have started 2013 brightly. Yet the sharp rise in region-wide investment volumes was in most part driven by a huge rise in activity in Russia. If... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama's budget will kick-start new round of negotiations President Obama's budget proposals for fiscal year 2014 will now kick-start a renewed round of negotiations in Congress that, at best, could result in a much-coveted grand bargain or, at worst if the... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Lower gilt yields underline safe-haven status The recent fall in gilt yields has reflected a combination of weak news on the UK economy, a renewed rise in safe-haven demand in response to the crisis in Cyprus and a slight building of hopes of... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank takes more dovish stance The Polish MPC appears to have taken a slightly more dovish stance since last month following weaker-than-expected inflation and activity data. Our base case remains that interest rates will be left... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook The crisis continues Recent events in Italy, Cyprus and Portugal have put a dent in hopes that the three-year crisis in the euro-zone is finally drawing to a close. Meanwhile, previous tentative signs that the broader... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank edging closer to neutral We don't anticipate any major changes from the Bank of Canada at Governor Mark Carney's penultimate policy meeting next Wednesday (April 17th), but the Bank will be forced to admit in the accompanying... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How dependent are low US Treasury yields on QE3? The conventional wisdom appears to be that 10-year Treasury yields are only likely to remain below 2% if the US central bank maintains its current pace of buying. In fact, the launches of successive... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Greek economic prospects really improving? Recent news from Greece has provided tentative signs that the economic situation there is improving. But we still think that the economy will remain in recession for longer than the Troika expects and... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Online sales growth offers some retail comfort In the subdued retail environment of recent years, one bright spot has been rapid growth in online sales. Even in the difficult conditions in 2012, internet purchases grew by 15%. With 90% of sales... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest inflation rise tips balance in favour of Brazil rate hike Brazilian inflation breached the upper bound of its target range last month, tipping the balance in favour of a hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting. Nonetheless, it... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine fails to agree on an IMF deal, again The failure of the authorities to agree on a new IMF programme leaves Ukraine extremely exposed if financial market tensions flare up again. Meanwhile, the government has recently unveiled its... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery falters The latest data suggest that the EM recovery may already be running into headwinds. With policy set to remain loose in most economies, EM growth is probably not about to slow again and will far... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
