The failure of the authorities to agree on a new IMF programme leaves Ukraine extremely exposed if financial market tensions flare up again. Meanwhile, the government has recently unveiled its economic programme for 2013-14 worth some 30% of GDP, which could potentially pose an upside risk to our GDP forecasts. However, the plan is still very sketchy, and in any case we suspect that Ukraine’s external vulnerabilities will offset much of the potential benefit to the economy.
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