UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q4) The number of financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs rose to a new record high in the final three months of last year. Although the large development pipeline will act as a brake, it now... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: inflation to breach target, but only temporarily South African inflation is likely to rise above the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in the near term, possibly as early as this month. Nevertheless, any spike should prove temporary, and inflation is... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily ZEW survey reveals waning confidence in Germany’s recovery 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has driven Russia's slowdown? The raft of Russian activity data for March, due to be released this week, is likely to show a slight improvement from February. But growth in Q1 is still set to be much weaker than at the end of last... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will 2013 be a rerun of 2012 for oil prices? The recent weakness supports our view that oil prices have been unsustainably high given the fragility of the global economic recovery. Over the next few years we continue to expect $100 to become a... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Latest Portuguese fiscal plans only buy time The Portuguese Government’s proposed new spending cuts should allow it to receive the next tranche of its bail-out loan and have its previous loans extended. But while this would provide some much... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Feb.) February's surprising 2.5% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes, which follows two consecutive monthly declines, suggests that overall economic growth in that month might have increased by 0.2%... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Mar.) With inflation remaining unusually low, the Fed is under little pressure to slow or halt QE. We expect it to continue with open-ended asset purchases until early next year, although it may still slow... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Apr.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Mar.) April’s fall in the German ZEW index highlighted investors’ fears that the German recovery will falter amid continued concerns about the euro-zone’s periphery. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The big rise in starts in March should help to calm the nerves of those worrying that the homebuilding recovery is running out of steam. Starts will fall back next month and there are challenges... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Government interventions make house price falls less likely The Government took further action to breathe life into the housing market in Budget 2013 by announcing a new Help-to-Buy scheme. Alongside the ongoing Funding for Lending Scheme, and with house... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Introducing the Capital Economics Risk Indicator Although emerging markets (EMs) have experienced rapid growth over the past 30 years, this period has been punctuated by occasional economic and financial crises. These have typically been preceded by... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico reform programme takes shape The Mexican economy has slowed since the start of the year, taking some of the shine off of one of Latin America’s more positive growth stories. Nonetheless, we expect the economy to rebound later... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) While CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 2.8% in March, it still looks set to climb over the summer. Nonetheless, the recent fall in oil prices has brightened the outlook for inflation further ahead. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE3 might not trigger a rise in UST term premiums One counter-argument to our view that the scaling back of QE3 would not trigger a rise in US Treasury yields is that "term premiums" would soar. However, the evidence is mixed. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
