Europe Economics Weekly Record trade surplus not a sign of strength February’s record-breaking euro-zone trade surplus of €12bn suggests that the external sector provided the wider economy with a boost in Q1. But we doubt that the sector is about to kick start an... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Triple dip debate distracts from dismal big picture After what seems like a lifetime of speculation, we will finally get the official verdict this week on whether the UK is in a triple-dip recession or not. We still think that the chances of a further... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The official core inflation figure, which held steady at 1.4% in March, is likely to drift lower through this year, as the excess slack in the economy continues to grow due to sluggish economic growth... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Homebuilding recovery will continue despite thorns in its side The homebuilding recovery is running into a number of constraints, prompting three consecutive monthly falls in the NAHB homebuilder confidence index. In a worst-case scenario, confidence could weaken... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How would a slump in gold prices affect South Africa? The sharp drop in gold prices over the past week or so has led to a sell-off in South Africa’s stock market, but the sector’s declining importance to the overall economy means that, so long as further... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest data on Japan’s monetary aggregates, which predate the Bank of Japan’s policy shift earlier this month, illustrate why a radical change was needed. But they also underline that the success... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update First signs that Amsterdam retail rents will not defy gravity forever The run of dismal consumer sector data from the Netherlands helps to explain why the level of retail yields in Amsterdam is high relative to other major euro-zone retail markets. Indeed, this could be... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Labour market weakness set to undermine spending The labour market’s recent deterioration threatens to nip the nascent recovery in consumer spending in the bud. Employment has begun to fall again and the forward-looking surveys suggest no imminent... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Consumption stimulus should not be welcomed Talk in China of new subsidies to boost household spending is an unwelcome sign that officials may have been diverted by the recent disappointing growth numbers towards thinking of short-term fixes... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Where do we stand on China and the "super-cycle"? In the light of the recent sharp falls in many commodity prices, it is worth reiterating our scepticism on the durability of the “super-cycle” and on the scope for further support from China. 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook An unbalanced and weak recovery The global economy is likely to grow at only a moderate pace this year and the divergences between regions are set to widen further. The US should resume its steady recovery but there is little... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Who is benefitting from the Funding for Lending Scheme? The Funding for Lending Scheme was designed with the purpose of boosting new lending to firms and households. Although the impact on lending has been rather modest, at least in terms of the housing... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium: not necessarily the core's weakest link? We have previously warned that Belgium shares several characteristics with peripheral economies, such as high public debt, banking problems and falling competitiveness. But the economy also enjoys... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Canada enjoying wealth advantage over US Based on our calculations of total domestic net worth, Canadians appears to be better off than their seemingly more affluent neighbours to the south. The problem is that the advantage Canada enjoys is... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How much further will Central London office rents rise? London City and West End office rents are now some 15% to 20% above their 2009 floors and the Consensus envisages that they will record similar gains in the next five years. We are more cautious... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
