The Polish MPC appears to have taken a slightly more dovish stance since last month following weaker-than-expected inflation and activity data. Our base case remains that interest rates will be left unchanged this year. But if the recovery fails to materialise in line with what the latest surveys suggest, we could see further rate cuts in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the minutes from last month’s Hungarian MPC meeting confirm that the current easing cycle has further to run.
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