China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The pick-up in headline consumer price inflation in April was driven by a rebound in vegetable prices, which should be short-lived. But headline inflation is still likely to edge higher over the... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Recession avoided: has the rental outlook just got better? It is clearly good that the economy has avoided another recession. But the news will do little to accelerate the much-needed recovery in commercial property rental values outside London. On past form... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cut in Polish rates looks likely Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka was guarded in his comments about whether further policy easing is on the cards. But with inflation likely to fall further below the Bank... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's rebalancing act unlikely to be painless The downward trend in housing starts supports our long-held view that a housing correction is underway. More importantly, the slump in pre-construction condo sales and dwindling number of new project... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation edges to within target range The drop in Brazilian inflation last month was a bit smaller than expected but still sufficient to bring it back within the central bank’s target range. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fluctuate... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Mortgage applications for home purchase have risen in seven of the past eight months, including in the most recent data relating to April. Taken alongside the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global recovery falters again Signs that global growth was picking up early this year have faded during the spring. Survey data for April confirm that there has been a slowdown in the US, where the fiscal squeeze is taking a toll... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the euro vulnerable to a shift in ECB policy? Last Thursday’s cut in the ECB’s refinancing rate and hints from the central bank’s President that the deposit rate could be reduced below zero have weighed on the euro. But the fall in the exchange... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s German industrial production figures suggest that the sector has gained momentum over the quarter, but a sustained and robust recovery still seems unlikely. 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain weak We estimate that the volume of China’s commodity imports rose y/y for the first time this year in April. But looking beyond the positive headlines, the figures were artificially boosted by calendar... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why have we been wrong on inflation? While we think that we’ve done a pretty good job of forecasting the economy recently, we readily admit that our record of forecasting inflation has left a lot to be desired. Given the apparently... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB make negative rates work? The ECB appears to have concluded that it can limit the adverse side-effects of imposing negative interest rates on commercial banks’ deposits. But even if this is the case, negative rates are not... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) This year’s earlier Easter was primarily to blame for April’s dip in the BRC measure of retail sales. Nonetheless, underlying sales growth still looks fairly limp 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Calendar effects inflate trade data The acceleration in both export and import growth last month was simply the result of there being more working days in April this year than last. It does not point to strengthening demand either at... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
