UK Commercial Property Outlook The floor is here but upswing will be slow The main messages of our commercial property forecasts have not changed materially since the previous Analyst. At the all-property level, capital values are more or less at a floor and there is a good... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and oilseed supply to surge to record levels Projections of record global crop production in 2013/14 by the United States Department of Agriculture have been the trigger for renewed weakness in the prices of US grains and oilseeds. We had... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why QE helps equities more than commodities There are three main reasons why further monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing (QE), is likely to benefit equities more than it benefits the prices of industrial commodities, including... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency to play bigger role in Mexican interest rate decisions The Mexican economy has hit a soft patch in recent months, but we would caution against being too pessimistic. Growth is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year as inflation pressures... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 13) April’s retail sales data provided the strongest sign yet that households have largely shrugged off January’s tax hikes. This is perhaps partly due to the recent plunge in gasoline prices, which has... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How significant are Japan's overseas bond purchases? The fact that Japanese investors have again started to buy foreign bonds is far from the “game changer” for global financial markets that the recent headlines might suggest. Indeed, it isn’t even such... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the economy turned a corner? There has been a fair bit of excitement about the renewed signs of life in the economy. We would be wary of getting too absorbed in the ebb and flow of the data. Indeed, it is still hard to see what... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Does Egypt need an IMF deal? Egypt has muddled through without an IMF deal for over two years, as bilateral aid has staved off a full-blown balance of payments crisis. But this cannot go on forever. The longer Egypt goes without... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany's role in a solution to the euro-zone debt crisis This Update summarises views expressed by Capital Economics’ Jennifer McKeown in a panel discussion at the Euromoney “Germany Conference” in Berlin on 24th and 25th April. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Still subdued in April Today’s data releases suggest that domestic demand remains weak despite a strong expansion in credit in recent months. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown bottoms out in Q1 A raft of Q1 GDP data due to be released over the coming weeks is likely to show that growth stabilised in most of Emerging Europe. Russia is the notable exception. Here, the slowdown seems to have... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable are German office rents to the slowdown? In contrast to our forecast for a modest fall during 2013, German office rental values began the year by posting another rise. Yet with economic sentiment in Germany deteriorating and office take-up... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei The yen finally weakened past 100 to the dollar on Friday, giving the Nikkei another major boost. The timing has been widely attributed to the release of data showing that Japanese investors were net... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's advance likely to fizzle out The Canadian dollar's recent advance is likely to fizzle out as it becomes clearer to the market that Canada's economy is actually losing momentum. We expect lower commodity prices and a severe... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
