Commodities Update Low shipping costs add to concerns over the recovery The persistent weakness in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is still primarily a reflection of the surge in the supply of cargo ships over the last few years. Demand for transporting dry bulk commodities... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) A dip in housing starts in April had been widely expected. Although the drop was much larger than the consensus forecast, other forward-looking indicators strongly suggest that April’s slump will be... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further falls in core inflation may make some Fed officials concerned about the possibility of very low inflation, or even deflation. This could mean we are jumping the gun a bit by expecting the Fed... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is monetary policy too loose for Germany? This Update addresses the question of whether monetary policy is now too loose for Germany and, if so, what can be done about it? While there are various policies that could be adopted at the national... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further Turkish rate cut in the pipeline We think the Turkish central bank (CBRT) will follow up today’s 50bp cut in interest rates with a further 25bp cut over the coming months. But policymakers may also continue to offset the impact of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to come clean on inflation? Argentina remains on a collision course with the IMF over the accuracy of its consumer price data. The Fund has threatened to impose sanctions if corrective measures are not taken by 29th September... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.) While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth picked up in Q1, but outlook subdued World GDP growth picked up in the first quarter, after a very weak end to 2012. But it looks unlikely to accelerate further given the extended euro-zone recession and slowdown in emerging economies. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) The mainland Norwegian economy picked-up strongly in Q1, suggesting that Q4’s slowdown was an outlier. But we still expect the economy to slow later in the year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies and... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q1) While housing completions dipped during the first quarter of 2013, this is a lagging indicator and more significantly private housing starts increased. Various Government interventions should mean... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Should we worry about the region’s current account trends? Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have seen their current account surpluses narrow or their deficits widen over the past few years, raising concerns that the region is vulnerable to balance of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at international corporate bond issuance This week’s bumper foreign debt sale by Brazil’s Petrobras has put the spotlight on the fast-expanding overseas market for EM corporate bonds. As it happens, this type of financing is still a small... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP starts 2013 strongly Japan’s healthy-looking GDP data are the first substantial piece of good economic news under the Abe government. It is debatable just how much of the acceleration is due to “Abenomics” and how much is... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) There are some encouraging signs in Japan’s latest monetary aggregates but it remains too early to tell whether the Bank of Japan’s policy shift last month is feeding the hoped-for acceleration in... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1 13) The mainland Norwegian economy picked-up strongly in Q1, suggesting that Q4’s slowdown was an outlier. But we still expect the economy to slow later in the year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies and... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
