Asia Economics Weekly Where next for interest rates in Vietnam and Sri Lanka? The central banks of Sri Lanka and Vietnam cut interest rates on Friday. This Weekly looks at the factors behind the rate cuts and explains why further monetary policy loosening is likely in both... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report may not impede further action Recent Inflation Reports have presented a pretty gloomy picture as far as the prospects for inflation are concerned. But May’s Report, to be published on Wednesday, should break this bad run. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook for bank lending remains favourable The fall in the stock of credit card debt in March tells us almost nothing about the outlook for consumption. More useful are other signs that credit card lending will rise over the next year. At the... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the industrial recovery be sustained? March’s national industrial production figures suggest that the sector gained momentum over the course of Q1. But we suspect that the revival could soon fizzle out. After all, domestic growth... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does S&P’s upgrade mean for the Philippines? S&P today upgraded the Philippines to investment grade status, becoming the second major ratings agency to do so in just over a month. However, this is unlikely to have a major impact on government... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's moderate 12,500 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +15,000) suggests that the economy has begun this quarter on a somewhat softer footing. If we are correct about the economy's... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Q1 slowdown reinforces case for rate cuts The slowdown in Nigerian GDP growth in Q1 was due in large part to the oil sector, but more importantly from the point of view of monetary policy, growth in the non-oil sector also cooled. With... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Spotting a turning point: look for a fall in average deal values We sense that property investors are poised for an upturn but not yet confident enough to become fully active again. One thing we will be watching for as a sign that a turning point has been reached... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending (Apr.) Credit growth has continued to accelerate. This hasn’t had a positive impact on economic growth so far but we expect it to feed a small pick-up in activity in the months ahead. 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain lacklustre GDP figures for Q1 released today show growth in Hong Kong remained lacklustre in y/y terms, while in q/q terms the pace of expansion slowed sharply. Looking ahead, with global demand set to... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) Following last week’s decent business survey results, March’s trade data provided more good news, with net trade likely to have added modestly to GDP growth in the first quarter. But while key export... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Exporters starting to struggle The latest trade data provide further evidence that Emerging Market exporters are starting to struggle. But while exports from Emerging Asia have continued to grow (albeit at a slower rate), exports... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates to stay on hold for the rest of this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru offered little to suggest that policymakers are considering a near-term change in interest rates. Going forward, we expect the monetary policy bias to shift... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish equities continue to outperform Turkish equities have been the region’s star performer once again over the past month amid growing optimism about the economic recovery, the rising prospect that a second ratings agency will assign... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia to remain a regional outperformer The tailwind of high and rising copper prices is unlikely to continue supporting growth in Zambia over the next few years. But improving governance levels and increasing infrastructure spending... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
