Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to decline further The continued decline in housing starts from elevated levels supports our view that residential investment will remain a drag on economic growth over the first half of 2013. Unfortunately, housing... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt refrains from hiking interest rates The Egyptian central bank’s decision to hold interest rates today came as a surprise, but with the country still on the brink of a full-blown balance-of-payments crisis we would not be surprised if... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1 13 The rise in mortgage delinquencies in Q1 is a reminder that it’s not all plain sailing for the housing recovery. But the gradual improvement in the labour market suggests that that the delinquency... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavian investment demand flat-lining The signs from the first quarter are that, while the trend for investment demand in Emerging Europe might have turned the corner, in Scandinavia it remains stagnant. The latest survey and hard... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities boosted by strong earnings season Over the last month, the FTSE 100 has risen to its highest level since December 2007 on the back of a good run of corporate earnings announcements. It is less clear that the better economic news has... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Benign inflation outlook supports case for loose policy Weak commodity prices and a faltering global recovery suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain very low for the foreseeable future. This will support the case for continued... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Non-distressed home sales up sharply Behind the small decline in overall home sales in March were several pieces of good news. Sales of new homes rose, an increasing share of total home sales took place under non-distressed conditions... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election campaign offers no hope of fiscal boost The growing likelihood of a grand coalition government after September’s election suggests that Germany’s tough stance on the euro-zone periphery might soften somewhat. However, none of the main... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: where do the risks lie? Total debt in emerging markets (EMs) is relatively low by international standards. But the history of EMs suggests that crises often occur when credit grows rapidly for several years rather than... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-to-Let Lending (Q1 13) The Funding for Lending Scheme proved unable to prevent a dip in buy-to-let (BTL) lending in the first quarter of 2013. While BTL lending should recover in the coming months, helped by underlying... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q1 13) It is too soon to declare Q1’s marginal rise in arrears and possessions to be the start of a deteriorating trend. But it seems clear that the steady improvement in the data, seen since the end of the... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Waiting for Carney The Monetary Policy Committee’s continued inaction shows it has limited appetite for helping the economy to break out of its current insipid state. Upon his arrival in July, Mark Carney may have his... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production figures suggest that the economic recovery gained some momentum towards the end of the first quarter. But there are various reasons to think that this impetus will not be... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in Korea likely by year-end The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut interest rates today amid fears over the strength of the global economy and concerns about the weakness of the Japanese yen against the won. Low inflation means... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What can Uruguay do to bring inflation down? Contrary to popular belief, Uruguay’s stubbornly high inflation rate is partly structural in nature and not simply the result of overheated demand. Bringing inflation down permanently will require far... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
