Asia Economics Update Australia’s public finances are still in good shape Australia’s government expects to make little headway in reducing its budget deficit in 2013/14. The government had previously been aiming to balance the budget in the current fiscal year, but... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rally in platinum prices postponed not cancelled Anglo American Platinum’s decision to scale back its planned production cuts mean that the global platinum industry is better supplied than had appeared likely. We suspect that further mine closures... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM local currency government bonds? The prospect of an extended period of loose monetary policy facilitated by low inflation should provide ongoing support to many emerging market (EM) local currency government bonds. However, we expect... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) Although house prices rose on a month-on-month basis in April, the annual growth rate slipped to a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.0%, from 2.6% in March. As home sales continue to fall, we expect... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Broad money growth has remained largely unchanged over the past six months, even after the Fed restarted its quantitative easing. The annual growth rate of our M3 measure picked up slightly to 6.4% in... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Set for a sluggish and uneven recovery The slowdown in Emerging Europe appears to have bottomed out at the start of the year. We expect growth to pick up over the second half of 2013, but the risk of a flare-up in the euro-crisis, the... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is tourism helping with rebalancing? Tourism is an important but often overlooked source of UK export earnings, with overseas visitors spending over £18bn annually in the UK. Increasing numbers of visitors from fast-growing emerging... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What negative rates would mean for euro-zone neighbours As a result of ultra-loose monetary policy in major economies, central banks in smaller countries such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are struggling to deal with both rising private debt... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s behind the surge in JGB yields? The jump in the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in the last few days probably reflects a confluence of many factors, including speculation that domestic institutions are set to step up... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are mortgage credit conditions loosening? Mortgage-dependent buyers have been unable to play the sort of role in this housing recovery that they have in previous cycles because mortgage credit conditions have remained tighter for longer. But... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1 13) The latest RICS survey suggests that occupier demand is rising gently and that rents may be about to turn a corner, albeit with the retail sector continuing to lag. These data bolster our expectation... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Lower Indian inflation unlikely to result in imminent rate cut The continuing slide in India’s wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers, but expectations of another near-term rate cut are likely to be disappointed. The RBI will want to see... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) & Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Mar.) May’s German ZEW survey and March’s euro-zone industrial production numbers made encouraging reading, but do not alter our view that the euro-zone remains in recession. 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weakness of Polish economy to bolster calls for rate cuts Today’s preliminary estimate of Polish GDP showed that the economy was in a weaker state at the start of the year than many had anticipated. Admittedly, there is a fair amount of uncertainty about... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) The April residential market survey showed that surveyors are now more optimistic about the outlook for house sales and prices. While we share some of the optimism with regards to transactions, we are... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
