Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery fades as BRICs lose steam The April manufacturing PMIs add to evidence that the emerging market (EM) recovery has lost pace in recent months. The slowdown has affected most EM regions, but the BRIC economies seem to have been... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Apr.) An improvement in April’s CIPS/Markit report on services joined the upticks already seen in the manufacturing and construction surveys in suggesting Q2 has got off to a good start. But even with these... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fears of a bubble forming in EM bonds now seem overdone Although the tone of this week’s FOMC statement suggests the US central bank is unlikely to taper its asset purchases imminently, we still think dollar-denominated emerging market (EM) government... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack More to euro's destiny than ECB policy The euro rebounded against the US dollar in April. Although expectations of a rate cut from the ECB began to build, Europe’s single currency was supported by a reassessment of how quickly the US FOMC... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's behind the weakness in oil prices? The recent slump in the cost of Brent crude can be explained by the fragility of the global economy, without appealing to the influence of industry-specific factors that are more likely to be... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing prospects still poor April’s business surveys suggest that global growth is faltering again. With continued fiscal austerity only partly offset by looser monetary policy, we doubt that it will accelerate in the coming... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate likely to fall further yet Tight credit conditions and the backlog of foreclosures still to be worked through mean that the homeownership rate will slide lower over the next year or so. But with owner-occupation still the... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania signals rate cuts Romanian policymakers provided pretty clear signs this afternoon that they plan to start easing policy. They were ambiguous on the timing, but we think that interest rate cuts could come once... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate cut will be of limited use The ECB’s widely anticipated interest rate cut should provide troubled banks in the region’s periphery with some much-needed support. But it will not be enough to drag the euro-zone out of recession... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar. 13) Canada posted it's first monthly trade surplus in a year in March. Unfortunately, we expect the improvement to be fleeting. The March figures were flattered by a big weather-related jump in natural... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further evidence of a faltering recovery The drop in the manufacturing PMI for April adds to evidence that Brazil’s recovery has faltered in recent months and is another reason to think that the current monetary policy tightening cycle will... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar. 13) The sharp decline in the monthly trade deficit to $38.8bn in March, from $43.6bn the month before, is largely due to a distortion caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year Holiday in China. There is... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy avoids a triple-dip There are some tentative signs that the economy is beginning to turn a corner. With GDP growing by 0.3% on the previous quarter in Q1, the economy comfortably avoided a triple-dip recession. And while... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing makes a better start to Q2 South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April suggests the sector may have rebounded a little at the start of Q2 having stagnated in Q1. But a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Apr. 13) The latest CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that commercial property activity has now not risen for nine months in a row. This provides yet another signal that the wider occupier market will... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
