UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) Together with last week’s improvement in consumer confidence, May’s stronger growth in the BRC measure of retail sales points to building momentum in the consumer sector. But with employment and... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Weak net lending is a brake on the housing market Mortgage approvals have increased marginally in recent months, helped by Government interventions. But that increase has been achieved with virtually no rise in net mortgage lending. Thus in aggregate... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a near four-year low of 49.0 in May, from 50.7, suggests that weak global conditions are weighing on US producers. While the manufacturing sector is... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Growth mix fails to help commodities Signs of stronger growth in the US have failed to boost commodities, due in part to the likelihood that the Fed will start to scale back its asset purchases under QE3 sooner than it might otherwise... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hikes essential to maintain credibility Although barely on the radar of most investors just yet, the Abe government’s decision on whether to press ahead with the planned fiscal tightening in 2014 and beyond may well be the most important... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growing risk of balance of payments crisis in Venezuela The Venezuelan economy may already be in recession and we continue to expect GDP to contract by 1% this year. With the authorities running out of hard currency, and oil prices unlikely to rebound over... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC likely to remain in limbo June looks like being another month of no change for the Monetary Policy Committee. Although inflationary pressures have eased recently, the role of temporary factors means the Committee is likely to... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers continue to struggle South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained at a weak level in May, and a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic structural constraints means the sector is likely to continue struggling in... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to say Egypt’s economy has turned the corner Although Egypt’s headline PMI rose sharply in May to reach its highest level in six months, we would caution against reading this as a sign that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, PMIs for... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (May) & FLS data (Q1) May’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing provided a tentative indication that the industrial sector’s recession might be drawing to a close. However, disappointing figures on the usage of the Funding... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update May PMIs suggest manufacturing recovery continues to falter The May PMIs for emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing recovery has lost momentum. Most central banks have loosened monetary policy in recent months, but they will not be able to fully... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturing showing signs of revival May’s PMIs provided some encouraging signs that manufacturing in Central Europe is turning the corner, helped by stronger demand from Germany. Worryingly though, the data indicate that the Turkish... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) China’s two manufacturing PMIs moved in opposite directions in May, with the official index above 50 and rising and the HSBC/Markit index dropping below 50. The second of these is more representative... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's housing downturn mirroring US slump Home building in Canada is on an ominous downward slope, similar in many ways to what happened in the early stages of the slump in the US. For this reason we think it is premature for policymakers to... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
