UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) The fall in May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provides another reason to think that the retail sector has lost momentum in the second quarter. Falling employment and negative pay growth means... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sluggish Polish growth to prompt further policy easing The breakdown of Polish Q1 GDP data confirmed that domestic demand remained extremely weak and it looks like there has been little improvement in April. Combined with below-target inflation, we think... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand in freefall The South African rand has collapsed in the past month, falling by over 9% against the US$. The magnitude of the fall means that the currency may now be somewhat undervalued, but we expect it to... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's government will push for more rate cuts The Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate for the first time since October at its meeting today, under heavy pressure from the government. Another rate cut is likely in the coming months. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) While positive on the surface, the acceleration in money supply growth conceals several worrying dynamics, not least another fall in lending to firms. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Apr.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator shows some improvement in April and has prompted us to nudge up our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%. Even so, growth remains slow by the standards of recent years and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) We think that Q1’s healthy rise in Swedish GDP is not quite as encouraging as it initially seems. But while we expect GDP growth to slow over the remainder of 2013, Sweden will continue to perform... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Demographics will not determine future of EMs Healthy demographics can certainly play a role in supporting growth in emerging markets. However, the future performance of places such as India, the Middle East and Africa, where demographics are... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is the worst now over for Dubai? Optimism has returned to Dubai’s economy, but its debt problems aren’t fully resolved. Ultimately, we think oil-rich Abu Dhabi will step in to provide emergency financing if needed. But even so, the... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs of new momentum in economic policy reform Six months after China's leadership transition there are encouraging signs that policymakers are embracing the need for significant economic policy reform. In this China Watch we review the progress... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1 13) We think that Q1’s healthy rise in Swedish GDP is not quite as encouraging as it initially seems. But while we expect GDP growth to slow over the remainder of 2013, Sweden will continue to perform... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Declining profits likely to hinder business investment Against the fragile global backdrop and the volatility of Canadian energy prices, business operating profits, which nudged lower in the first quarter of this year, are likely to remain under... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, falling gasoline prices and the housing recovery, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to a five-year high of 76.2 in May, from 69.0... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
