US Economics Weekly Fed struggling to explain likely evolution of asset purchases For a central bank that supposedly puts so much weight on clear communications, last week’s various attempts by Federal Reserve officials to explain when it might begin curbing its open ended monthly... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly NIEs underperformance set to continue One of the most notable features of the Q1 GDP data for Emerging Asia is the continued weak performance of the NIEs (Newly Industrialised Economies, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore). This... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by April's inflation figures April’s sharp fall in CPI inflation led some to quickly conclude that this would be enough on its own to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into action. But a closer look at the figures... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Liquidity concerns could soon deepen again The continued falls in commercial banks’ deposits at the ECB are in part a reflection of an improvement in conditions in the banking sector. But further falls could see liquidity falling to levels... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia makes a weak start to Q2 April’s activity data will dent any remaining hopes for a quick rebound in Russian growth following the slump in Q1. As a result, the Central Bank is likely to come under yet further pressure to cut... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 3.3% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in April is another sign that growth is holding up quite well. We anticipate a 5% annualised gain in business investment in the second quarter, with... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will mortgage interest rates fall further? With the base rate at 0.5% and wholesale funding rates at around 2%, it seems clear that mortgage interest rates can continue to fall. But the desire to raise capital, and concerns over what will... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (May), Consumer Conf. (Jun) & Final GDP (Q1) May’s renewed rise in the German Ifo survey and the increase in the GfK consumer confidence indicator for June added to signs that the economy is recovering. But we expect the recovery to be modest. 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr. 13) Mortgage approvals edged up in April, aided by record low mortgage rates and other Government support for the housing market. But a fourth consecutive fall in net lending suggests that mortgage market... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Slump in regional growth may be bottoming out The raft of preliminary GDP data released earlier this month provided some hope that the region’s slowdown bottomed out in the first quarter of the year. Nonetheless, growth is extremely weak, at just... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi surge undermines case for capital account opening The recent surge in the renminbi may have been an attempt by policymakers to lay the groundwork for a loosening of capital controls. But it has ended up demonstrating why such a move will be difficult... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Nascent recovery begins to wither The nascent recovery in consumer spending lost pace in the first quarter and there are signs that it has wilted further since. Admittedly, some of the weakness of the latest evidence reflects... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will soon become unnecessary The outgoing Governor Carney's last scheduled statement next week (May 29th) is unlikely to hint at any shift in policy. Nor do we believe that his replacement Stephen Poloz, due to take over next... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: region's growth star losing its lustre The weakness of today’s Peruvian GDP data supports our belief that the economy is entering a phase of permanently slower growth as the mining boom of the past decade fades. Ample scope for a policy... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update May’s ‘flash’ PMIs provide little cheer Preliminary PMIs for May, published by Markit today, suggest that global growth remains subdued. In particular, Chinese manufacturing activity may have slowed further, and the recession in the euro... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
