Latin America Economics Update Latin American equities underperform The recent weakness of Latin American stock markets has continued unabated in May, with returns well below those of developed and emerging market equity benchmarks. Going forward, we expect stocks to... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1 13) Swiss GDP data for Q1 confirmed that the economy continued to perform well. But the still high level of the franc does appear to be damaging exports and we suspect that growth will slow significantly... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong GDP growth in the Philippines makes rate cuts unlikely GDP growth in the Philippines accelerated in Q1 on the back of strong domestic demand. Against this background, we think the central bank will leave interest rates on hold for the rest of 2013. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May. 13) The rise in house prices recorded by the Nationwide in May could further boost the growing sense of optimism regarding the housing market. But the fundamentals are still weak, and we think much of... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil ups the ante in fight against inflation Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bps last night, sending out a strong message that it has not gone soft on inflation. Further hikes are possible in the months... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1 13) Swiss GDP data for Q1 confirmed that the economy continued to perform well. But the still high level of the franc does appear to be damaging exports and we suspect that growth will slow significantly... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wages and salaries less supportive to consumption growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US lending further The FDIC’s latest banking figures show that, buoyed by falling loan default rates, the quarterly net income of US banks hit a record high of $40bn in the first quarter. The expiry of the unlimited... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank stands pat and waits for new Governor The Bank of Canada stood pat, leaving its tightening bias unchanged ahead of the arrival of the new Governor. The challenges that Governor Poloz will face, namely a weak global economy, volatile... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this the start of a sustained rise in bond yields? The recent surges in the yields of US Treasury and Japanese government bonds have led some to ask whether this might be the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Yields should of course rebound to... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will lower interest rates halt the rise in Budapest property yields? Yesterday’s cut in official interest rates in Hungary is good news for property markets in Budapest. But we are sceptical that the latest easing cycle is sustainable. And if, as we expect, interest... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More needs to be done to rebalance Brazilian economy The strong performance of Brazilian investment in Q1 is promising, but it will have to be maintained for a sustained period in order to significantly ease the economy’s supply constraints and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian dinar falls on back of IMF deal The Tunisian dinar has been one of the worst performing EM currencies over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, equity markets in the Gulf have continued to rally. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales yet to take off Despite all the hype about “Abenomics” already encouraging a surge in consumer spending, the hard data on retail sales remain subdued. This makes sense given the persistent weakness of employment and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
