Latin America Chart Pack Slower growth to become the new norm Economic growth across Latin America was weaker than expected in Q1. We estimate that regional GDP increased by about 2.2% y/y, down from 2.8% y/y in Q4 of last year – the slowest pace since 2009... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr. 13) Mortgage approvals were virtually unchanged in April according to the Bank of England, providing further evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme may just prevent further falls in mortgage lending... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q1) The Danish economy rebounded in Q1 after its very weak finish to last year, but we doubt that the recovery will last long. 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May 13) May’s strong rise in the level of consumer confidence will raise hopes that the near-term outlook for consumer spending has brightened. But May’s reading was boosted by some temporary factors, and... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q1 13) The Danish economy rebounded in Q1 after its very weak finish to last year, but we doubt that the recovery will last long. 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falters on insufficient domestic demand The further decline in the small and medium-sized business confidence in May suggests that second-quarter GDP growth may have slowed down to less than half the estimated 2.2% annualised in the first... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Economic weakness set to undermine equity rally The recent surge in the FTSE 100 to just shy of its all-time high has fuelled speculation that a ‘great rotation’ of funds from bonds to equities is under way. But we struggle to see how the equity... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Surveying the zero bound with caution After cutting interest rates last month and hinting that more support might be to come, we suspect that the ECB will disappoint markets at its forthcoming policy meeting and press conference... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are inventory levels starting to normalise? The return of double-digit rates of house price inflation has grabbed most of the headlines in recent days. But equally significant are signs that sellers are returning to the market in force. We... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions improving slightly Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a solid 175,000, in May, although we suspect the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5%. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much does OPEC matter? The twice-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow is likely to confirm the official production target of 30m barrels per day. But the bigger picture is that the cartel now ranks no higher than a... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's political upheaval to continue to drag on growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Apr. 13) Land Registry data for April point to house prices in the UK showing marginal gains, but that national average hides a very wide regional divergence. While prices in London are growing at an annual... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs continue to lose steam Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Q1 may have slumped to a three-and-a-half year low, having been hit by a dip in global trade and structural problems in the BRIC economies. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May 13) The EC consumer and business survey for May suggests that the euro-zone recession may be easing. But an economic recovery still appears to be some way off. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
