Canada Chart Pack GDP growth to be pulled down by domestic weakness The pick-up in first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, propelled by an energy-driven rebound in net exports, masks the undertow from the slowing domestic economy. Government spending restraint... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global business conditions pick up slightly Purchasing managers’ surveys for May suggest that conditions improved in Japan and the UK and that the deterioration in the euro-zone is not as steep as it was a few months ago. But these improvements... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Nikkei? The markets’ honeymoon with the Abe government has ended, but it seems premature to consider filing for divorce. Indeed, the worst of the correction in the Nikkei may soon be over. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys still point to continued recession Some of the euro-zone business surveys have had a slightly stronger tone over the last couple of months. Nonetheless, at current levels, they remain consistent with a further contraction in activity... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to stay below 3% until 2015 Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka gave few hints about the likelihood of further easing. We think it’s most likely that interest rates will be left on hold at 2.75% over... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: prospect of rate cuts to keep peso under pressure The Chilean peso recently weakened to over 500/US$ and, with support for rate cuts within the central bank growing, we expect it to fall to around 520/US$ by year-end. Meanwhile, Brazil’s decision to... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will Rwanda continue to outperform? We expect a fall in agricultural commodity prices and a reduction in aid flows to lead to slower growth in Rwanda over the next couple of years. Nevertheless, increasing foreign direct investment into... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3 Core inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that will spark concerns about deflation and prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases later this year. This is mainly because... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of recovery Signs that the economic recovery may be taking root are growing. The ONS confirmed that GDP grew by 0.3% in Q1 and May’s CIPS/Markit surveys suggest growth may have accelerated in the second quarter... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Verdict on Abe speech seems harsh Judging by the initial market reaction and media coverage, PM Abe’s “growth strategy” already appears to be a damp squib. To be fair, it was always unrealistic to expect a Prime Ministerial speech in... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) For all the talk of a renewed US housing bubble, today’s mortgage applications data are a reminder that the recovery remains highly dependent on loose monetary policy. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Jury still out on sustainability of recovery After a strong start to the year, the early signals for the second quarter have been mixed. Business and consumer confidence is still at high levels, although it remains to be seen whether this will... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (May) With a sharp rise in May’s CIPS/Markit report on services joining improvements in the manufacturing and construction surveys, signs that a recovery in the economy may be taking root are becoming more... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for Brussels retail property? The growing differential between office and retail yields in Brussels does not seem sustainable. But if, as we suspect, it primarily reflects investors’ views that retail has the best defensive... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
