UK Economics Update Real pay under pressure, however you measure it The Trades Union Congress grabbed headlines today with its analysis showing a dramatic drop in pay over the past five years. Although we believe the fall in wages is not quite as bad as reported, the... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are commodities to the tapering of QE3? The prospect of a reduction in US monetary stimulus has already begun to undermine the prices of many risky assets, from developed market equities to emerging market currencies. However, this prospect... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Households looking increasingly healthy The Fed’s latest US Financial Accounts (formerly known as the Flow of Funds Accounts) highlight that in a few years’ time, US households will be well placed to contribute to a prolonged period of... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1) Today’s data on mortgage lending and quoted interest rates underline the fact that the Funding for Lending Scheme is struggling to give a boost to lending. In turn, that highlights the risk that, in... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan declines to panic The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board was content simply to upgrade its economic assessment today. This disappointed those hoping for further monetary easing in response to the recent volatility in... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr. 13) While April’s industrial production figures were not as encouraging as recent news on other sectors of the economy, they still suggested that a modest industrial recovery is getting underway. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey Q1 GDP reveals familiar vulnerabilities First quarter GDP growth in Turkey was stronger than expected, driven by an impressive turnaround in domestic demand. But the flipside of domestic demand-led growth is that the current account deficit... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May) Today's RICS residential property market survey suggests that a degree of liquidity is returning to the owner occupier market. In turn, this has taken a little of the steam out of the rental market. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: clothing Consumers have shown tremendous zeal for buying clothes over the last decade, despite the recession and the squeeze on their incomes. But they have been teased into the shops by falling prices. We... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Field of dreams: Is farmland the next bubble? There does appear to be a localised bubble in farmland values in the corn belt. Near-zero interest rates have undoubtedly played some role in this, but the bigger factor has been the surge in corn and... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada's housing downturn far from over Recent housing evidence does not convince us that Canada's housing downturn has stabilised. As housing demand remains sluggish in certain markets and softens further in others, we expect the still... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging market currencies to remain under pressure Emerging market currencies have generally been hit hard over the past month, with sentiment further souring in the wake of the latest US FOMC minutes. We think many will remain under pressure this... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has housebuilding finally turned a corner? A recovery in housebuilding is long overdue and although we suspect that it may not be as strong as it appears at first sight, encouragingly, there are now signs that it may finally be underway. 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Second devaluation would not solve Venezuela's woes Another devaluation of the bolivar would do nothing to solve Venezuela’s shortage of foreign currency. Until or unless the government changes tack and adopts a more market-friendly economic framework... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weak Q1 GDP could add to market concerns The protests that have gripped Turkey over the past couple of weeks have come at a time when the country’s economic vulnerabilities appear to be mounting. This week, as well as the ongoing protests... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
