Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MSCI reclassifications likely to have limited impact Financial markets have reacted positively to the news that MSCI has upgraded Qatar and the UAE to Emerging Market status. But we fear that the eventual benefit may be lower than some seem to expect. 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rupee decline highlights India’s fundamental weaknesses Talk of “policy tapering” by the Federal Reserve has been the catalyst for a broad-based sell-off in emerging market currencies. Within Asia, the worst performer has been the rupee. Its decline... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s ROM - not working as hoped The Turkish central bank’s much-vaunted “reserve option mechanism” doesn’t appear to have smoothed movements in the currency, as had been hoped. This means that the Bank may have to rely on more... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes in Indonesia's Fasbi rate likely before year-end Bank Indonesia’s decision today to hike the rate it pays lenders on overnight deposits (also known as the Fasbi rate) reflects concerns about the weakness of the rupiah and falls in the level of... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria may already be the region's largest economy Technical difficulties mean that the proposed rebasing and revision of Nigerian GDP data have now been delayed until 2014. Nevertheless, whenever the revised data are released, they are likely to show... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The external adjustment has only just begun Most peripheral euro-zone economies have made impressive progress in narrowing their current account deficits. But so far this is only a correction in flows; theses economies have made little or no... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What’s holding back investment? The drop back in machinery orders in April is not the disaster that the headlines suggest, but hopes of a rapid turnaround in investment are clearly premature. The main headwind is the large amount of... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The solid rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector will expand in Q2. But industry is unlikely to spearhead a wider economic recovery. 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q1 13) The continued, steady increase in the number of financial & business services sector jobs in the first three months of the year should provide a further boost to London office rents for at least the... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) The recovery in the wider economy already appears to be filtering through to the labour market, although activity is still looking weaker than a few months ago and real pay continues to fall sharply. 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Financial and business services sector jobs (Q1 13) The continued, steady increase in the number of financial & business services sector jobs in the first three months of the year should provide a further boost to London office rents for at least the... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay's revamped inflation strategy still looks flawed Changes to Uruguay’s monetary policy regime, including a shift towards monetarism, are unlikely to be a panacea for the country’s inflation problems. Without tighter economic policy and efforts to... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Around half of the fall in the rand over the past month or so appears to have been due to global factors, while the other half has possibly been due to domestic factors such as labour unrest. With... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
