Europe Economics Weekly Will deflation settle the ECB debate? The commencement last week of the German Constitutional Court hearing into the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) programme has re-stoked the debate over the... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in rate expectations boosts case for guidance The recent rise in market rate expectations highlights why Mark Carney might be keen to give reassurance that interest rates will not rise, even as the economy starts to pick up. 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is 3% growth achievable? Many commentators have dismissed the government’s 3% target for GDP growth as far too ambitious. But there are two key points that at least some have missed. First, the target applies to nominal... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) With most attention focused on the housing sector, the plight of the manufacturing sector has gone largely unnoticed. But manufacturing sales volumes have been trending lower for more than a year now... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 82.7 in June, from 84.5, reversed only part of the sharp gain of May. While the details of the report point to solid... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (May) The recent weakness of the global economy explains why both industrial activity and core producer price pressures are still subdued. Producers have had little choice but to reflect the previous sharp... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Construction Output (Apr.) April’s construction figures are better than they look, given that the data are not seasonally adjusted. On the face of it, they tentatively suggest that construction could help the economic recovery... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile still on track to lower interest rates this year Chile’s central bank (BCC) held its interest rate at 5% last night, in spite of weaker growth and inflation data which had led some analysts (including ourselves) to forecast a cut. Going forward... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Competitiveness concerns are in Latin America, not China Despite having experienced relatively rapid wage growth in recent years, there is little evidence that China has suffered a significant loss of export competitiveness. Instead, the EM region that has... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation eases further, but RBI should remain on hold Today’s further fall in India's wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers. While the odds of a rate cut have now risen, we still think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will opt to... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation low and heading lower Average inflation in advanced economies fell to only 1.3% in April, its lowest rate since late 2009. Moreover, recent commodity price movements suggest that it will fall further during the coming... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Asset prices tumble on fears of monetary tightening Investors’ fears that central banks will tighten – or at least stop loosening – monetary policy sooner than previously thought have prompted both UK equity and bond prices to fall sharply. Upward... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes that CEE investment had turned a corner are dashed The likely drop in Central & Eastern European (CEE) investment volumes in Q2 will have dashed any hopes that the trend for activity might have turned a corner. Moreover, the recent sell-off in... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerned should we be about higher mortgage rates? The rise in mortgage interest rates has the potential to generate a hiatus in housing sales and starts over the summer. At the margins, the rise also adds to the case for expecting the housing... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
