Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cut still a possibility The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review to underline uphill battle facing recovery Next Wednesday’s Spending Review will essentially just flesh out how the cuts that have already been announced will be achieved. Nonetheless, the Government may use it to shift around its spending in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China slowdown and policy outlooks to keep prices weak Poor Chinese manufacturing data and the prospect that US monetary policy may soon be less supportive have more than offset signs that the recession in the euro-zone is easing. Of these developments... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) Continuing a recent run of good economic news, May’s rise in the official measure of retail sales will have partly reflected the fading drag from the unusually cold weather seen earlier in the year... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) June’s euro-zone PMI survey continued the upward trend of recent months, but still suggests that the euro-zone economy contracted for a seventh quarter running in Q2. 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a moderate pick-up New Zealand’s economy grew slower than expected in Q1, as drought hit the agricultural sector. A pick-up is likely over the coming quarters, but weak export demand and tight fiscal policy will prevent... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Q2 GDP growth to fall further The May reading of the Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has continued to slow in y/y terms. With no rebound yet apparent, we are revising down our forecasts for GDP... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun. 13) Today’s worse-than-expected reading on China’s flash PMI gives a further reason to expect GDP growth to slow this quarter. Policymakers care more about the state of the labour market than the headline... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank rate cut still a possibility The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Monetary policy to remain highly accommodative Governor Stephen Poloz's debut public speech, which focused on the fragile global recovery and lack of business confidence, touched on our long-held concerns about Canada's economic recovery and why... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice price to continue to fall as Thailand reduces support We expect the reduction in the floor price the Thai government will pay rice farmers to increase private exports and sales from government stocks, putting further downward pressure on prices. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency sell-off unlikely to push EM inflation up Emerging Market (EM) inflation edged down last month and looks likely to remain subdued, in spite of the recent sell-off in EM currencies. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How sustainable are Stockholm office yields? The low level of Stockholm office yields reflects safe haven demand and Sweden’s comparatively strong economy. These factors are likely to support yields for the next year or so. On a five-year view... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concerns Short-lived cash crunches in China are not unusual. But the fact that the People’s Bank has allowed the current crunch to persist so long when economic growth remains weak signals the depth of its... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
