Commodities Update A new front in the war on coal? US President Obama’s speech on climate change policy yesterday contained little new. Nonetheless, it highlights the downward pressures on coal prices already coming from environmental policy... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade still sluggish The latest data show that world trade growth was pretty weak in both April and May. Forward-looking indicators give a mixed picture, but overall there is little reason to expect trade volumes to pick... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which markets are most at risk from the rise in bond yields? The recent rise in bond yields is unlikely to feed automatically into higher European property yields. But to the extent that it increases concerns about the growth outlook and debt burdens, the... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update ONS release new statistics on private sector rental growth The ONS have produced a new experimental index of private housing rental prices, which reports that rents in the private sector in May were around 1.3% higher compared to a year ago. That is a much... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates here to stay In light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy, we have revised our 10-year Treasury yield forecasts higher. Accordingly, recent gains in 30-year mortgage rates are unlikely to be unwound... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Grounds for cautious optimism The latest activity data from Emerging Europe provide some grounds for cautious optimism. Growth in the highly open Central European economies appears to be picking up, albeit from low rates. And... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian markets in turmoil Financial markets in Egypt have been hit by a triple whammy of rising political tensions, growing concerns over the fiscal position and the continued deadlock in negotiations with the IMF. Equities... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review details only fraction of the pain left There were virtually no changes in the overall fiscal plans in today’s Spending Review. Accordingly, the Review did nothing to alter the prospect of a prolonged period of government spending cuts. In... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Capital outflows pose economic challenge The main development of the past month has been the big sell-off in financial markets which has been triggered by worries about the consequences of a scaling back of QE in the US. Foreign investors... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Government spending isn't the solution to Brazil's problems The response of Brazil’s government to recent unrest suggests a willingness to engage with protestors’ concerns, but also reveals a fundamental misdiagnosis of the underlying issues. The problem lies... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Slovenia avoid a bail-out? In spite of Slovenia’s low public debt and small banks, the country is in a very precarious position given the scale of the rot in the banking sector. To avoid a bail-out, the Government will need to... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Market turmoil yet to take its toll on US consumer confidence 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The increase in Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a five-and-a-half-year high of 81.4 in June, from 74.3, was quite surprising given that the usual determinants of sentiment didn't... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will higher bond yields stall the global recovery? The recent sharp rise in government bond yields in the developed world has raised fears that the global economic recovery could be derailed by the deterioration in financial conditions. We think these... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Latin American currencies? The sharp falls in Latin American currencies over the past month mean that many are now below our end-year targets, which looked extremely bearish only a few months ago. But while we think the trend... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
