Global Markets Update A more cautious view on gold The slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce on Friday forced us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal. Nonetheless, our revised forecasts assume a bit... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update June PMIs provide little encouragement The June PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors continue to struggle. New orders were particularly disappointing. We think fragile global demand will make life difficult for... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of improvement in Eastern Europe The latest batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs adds to the growing sense that things are improving in the region. This reinforces our view that growth in the second half of this year is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 13) Today’s PMIs suggest that firms weathered the cash crunch well and, with interbank rates now dropping back, it may appear that the crisis has passed. But a slowdown in credit growth and greater... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures show that, with households continuing to take on new debt and signs of life in the housing market, a consumer recovery may be taking root. But with real incomes... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI improves but conditions remain tough South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked-up in June, suggesting that, having contracted in Q1, the sector made a positive contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. However, a combination of sluggish... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The latest euro-zone inflation and labour market figures brought a slight note of caution after the recent improvement in some of the region’s activity indicators. 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May) Net new lending to commercial property was negative again in May. Existing lenders are likely to continue to cut the size of their property loan books in the coming months, although there are few... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May.) The Bank of England reported that gross mortgage lending in May reached the highest level since the start of the financial crisis, and mortgage approvals for house purchase also saw a robust rise. But... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jun.) & Household Borrowing (May) Today’s figures indicate that the recovery in manufacturing and mortgage lending – hitherto two of the weakest parts of the economy – is gathering steam. 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch New Governor to hit the ground running Despite the recent improvement in the economic data, there is still a strong case for the new Governor Mark Carney to give the economy additional support in order to boost the chances of the recovery... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan confirms recovery on track Today’s Tankan survey confirms that Japan 's economy is continuing to recover, albeit gradually. The survey is based on replies received up until just a few days before publication, so it is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Would a US manufacturing recovery be a threat to Asia? Concerns that a manufacturing renaissance in the US could negate the benefits for Asia of stronger US growth are probably overblown. But with the euro-zone and Chinese economies still subdued, Asian... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Forward guidance might benefit economy The recent rise in rate expectations and bond yields might prompt the Bank of Canada to consider providing some concrete forward guidance in its next policy statement. While the Bank need not go as... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slower Q2 GDP growth won't change the Fed's plans Last week brought a plethora of economic data which, on balance, indicated that second-quarter growth could be a little weaker than previously expected. We now estimate a modest 1.5% gain in real GDP... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
