Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 13) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions survey shows that the supply of finance continues to improve in both the residential and commercial property sectors. However, there has been no easing... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for refinancing tumbled in the face of higher mortgage interest rates in June. But applications for home purchase, which are a better indicator of underlying housing demand, were... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The tide is turning for State & local governments Recent evidence on employment and construction spending has supported our view that a rebound in spending by State and local governments this year will offset some of the drag on GDP growth from a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is $100 oil here to stay? The relative resilience of oil prices in the face of worries about US monetary policy and the health of China’s economy suggest that $100 will act as a floor for the price of a barrel of Brent for a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jun.) With a sharp rise in June’s CIPS/Markit measure of services activity joining further improvements in the manufacturing and construction surveys, it looks increasingly likely that GDP growth in Q2 will... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Treasury market braced for future Fed tightening? We think the US federal funds rate will have been raised to about 4% by the end of 2017. However, based on a decomposition of the Treasury yield curve, it looks like the bond market is more or less... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recent rise in yields need not spell fiscal gloom The recent jump in UK government borrowing costs is hardly a welcome development in the face of a budget deficit that remains historically high. But with some rise in yields already factored into... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising wages needed to keep up with higher prices Today’s official release confirmed that labour cash earnings were still subdued in May, but we can already be confident that higher summer bonuses will deliver much better headlines for June and July... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Weak growth even before the crisis June’s PMIs fell across the whole of the MENA region. But they do not take into account the political unrest that has flared up once again in Egypt and could weigh heavily on the economy over the... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will consumers drive a recovery after all? Growth in consumer spending has been one of the few bright spots for the economy over the past year. But we doubt a continued consumer recovery will be that strong, at least in the near-term. In any... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May 13) There were few signs of a slowdown in house price gains in the most recent CoreLogic data. But with supply now on the rise, double-digit price gains may not be the norm for too much longer. 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
