Global Markets Update Too soon to write off the pound The recent weakness in the pound against the US dollar has produced the usual flurry of headlines about an imminent sterling crisis. However, while the relative prospects for monetary policy in the US... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from transatlantic trade talks Negotiations between the US and EU on a transatlantic trade and investment agreement begin today. In the long run, an agreement could provide a significant boost to world trade and economic activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: FX reserves drop to 6-year low The slump in Ukrainian FX reserves to a six-year low serves as a reminder that Ukraine’s fragile external position continues to keep it one step away from a full-blown balance of payments crisis. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery faces bigger risks than higher rates The recent jump in long-term interest rates has raised concerns over the impact of higher borrowing costs on the nascent consumer recovery. While the rise clearly isn’t helpful, the continued squeeze... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The turning tide - life after QE Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions soften further The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that businesses do not expect any material improvement in future sales growth and, as a result, are scaling back their investment plans. Accordingly... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreign buyers peripheral to housing recovery A couple of years ago, a lot was being made of the potential for foreign buyers to come to the rescue of the housing market. We were dubious of these claims at the time, and a recent NAR survey seems... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Favourable weather to dampen US grain prices further The falls in US grain prices over the last month were largely due to better weather which allowed farmers to finish planting. The extremely wet spring had supported prices due to fears that late... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the revival of hotel investment a sign of better times ahead? To us, the recent surge in hotel deals is not indicative of any sharp, sector-specific improvement in the underlying demand drivers. Instead, investors simply seem to have been making opportunistic... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (May 13) May’s falls in German exports and industrial production add to evidence that the recovery in the euro-zone’s largest economy will be very modest. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Economy Watchers Survey suggests recovery is slowing The headline indices from today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) are still at high levels, but the larger-than-expected falls in June point to slower growth in Q2 and beyond than in Q1. While other... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Steady as she goes The Bank of Japan’s two-day July meeting (which concludes on Thursday) is unlikely to result in any major policy changes. Indeed, the Board is probably much happier with recent market developments –... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook After the stagnation In our latest UK Quarterly Review, we discuss reasons to be optimistic about the UK’s medium term outlook. Contrary to the popular belief that we are the eternal “Eeyores” of the economics world, we... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy We are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review today and the economic mood has brightened considerably since the last Review when a triple-dip was still a real possibility. Although GDP growth over... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Limited economic impact from higher borrowing costs It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
