Canada Economics Weekly Canada should weather China's slowdown Canada should weather China's economic slowdown relatively well, with fairly minor consequences for economic growth. Since China represents a fairly small share of Canada's total exports, any slowdown... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s strong Q2 is not the start of a robust recovery Singapore’s economy posted its strongest gain in two years in Q2. We are raising our full-yearforecast for 2013 but, as this Weekly explains, last quarter’s good performance will not be thestart of a... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households unlikely to welcome higher inflation Inflation expectations have jumped since the Bank of Japan’s announcement of more aggressive easing in April. Higher inflation should be beneficial for borrowers as it will erode the real value of... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ominous signs for German exports Last week’s German trade data revealed a sharp drop in exports, suggesting that the economy’s export engine is not performing particularly well. Much attention has focused on the deteriorating outlook... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling back in the spotlight Sterling hit the headlines again last week as it weakened further against the dollar and euro. Meanwhile, last week’s slightly weaker economic data suggested that GDP growth in Q2 might not surge as... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 tapering in September still a good bet We don’t think the balanced discussion that took place at the FOMC meeting in mid-June means that the Fed is less likely to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases sooner rather than later. In... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 83.9 in July, from 84.1, was probably in reaction to the recent sharp decline in stock markets. But since equity prices... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the government’s bottom line for growth? Confusion over where the government’s “bottom line” for GDP growth lies suggests that officials may be less fixated on meeting the annual growth target than many outside observers think. Their main... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Nabiullina’s first meeting suggests policy continuity Russia’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its first meeting under the new governor, Elvira Nabiullina, confirming our view that the change in leadership at the CBR is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could the gap between yields in Prague and Warsaw narrow? Over the past five years, investors’ preference for property in Warsaw above Prague has been mirrored by yields in the Polish capital moving the lower of the two. But now that occupier market... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices likely to fall back by year end We expect the price of US soybeans to decline gradually over the summer as exports from South America pick up. They may then fall more rapidly by the end of the year as a large supply of crops from... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bernanke bashing illustrates limits of “forward guidance” Many of the criticisms of the US Fed’s recent communications on monetary policy are, in our view, unfair. However, the difficulty that the media and markets have found in drawing clear conclusions... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Jun.) Round one in the fight between policymakers and lenders has gone to the former. Outstanding credit growth has slowed. But the key, as yet unanswered, question is whether the slowdown will continue now... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May 13) May’s euro-zone industrial production data show that the sector cannot be relied upon to generate a strong and sustained recovery. 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank hints at a rate cut ahead The Central Bank of Chile left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0% last night, but gave the clearest signal yet that a rate cut is on the cards in the coming months. Elsewhere, the prospect... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
