Japan Economics Update Nuclear energy restart not a game changer A partial resumption of nuclear energy generation is unlikely to reduce Japan’s trade deficit meaningfully. Electricity prices could fall slightly, but are likely to remain very high compared to... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Spanish labour market really on the mend? Some commentators have pointed to the recent run of encouraging Spanish unemployment figures as evidence that the green shoots of recovery may be emerging there. But we are far from convinced that the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) There are now some tentative signs that broad money supply is responding to the Bank of Japan’s more aggressive easing. Since April the broadest money measure has increased at the fastest pace in y/y... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Sales losing a bit of momentum The disappointing rise in retail sales values in June increases the chances that GDP grew at an annualised rate of less than 1% in the second quarter. Even more worrying is that sales growth appears... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further rises in oil prices would undermine global growth The recent rise in oil prices is not large enough to be a significant drag on global growth, particularly given that Brent crude has increased much less than WTI. However, if prices rise much further... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market growth: the long view We think that the non-BRIC Emerging Markets (EMs) will play a more important role than the BRICs in driving a gradual acceleration of global GDP growth over the next 2-3 years. Within the EM world... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recent fall in gas prices due to a lot of hot air The recent swings in the price of natural gas in the US have mainly been caused by the unusually cold spring. The bigger picture is that higher demand from utilities and manufacturers and lower... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry should still outperform Despite a poor start to the year there are still good reasons to expect Mexican manufacturing to strengthen over the second half of 2013 and support a period of relatively strong growth in the wider... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some of our best non-consensus calls (and a few lemons) We are often asked for examples of bold non-consensus calls that have been proved right. This Update provides a selection from the last few months across a range of our services. The publications... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish savings need to rise The fall in the lira and the sharp rise in bond yields over the past month have cast the spotlight back onto Turkey’s persistent current account deficit and dependency on foreign capital inflows. At... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's rising inflation makes near-term rate cut even less likely Today’s slight increase in India's wholesale price inflation will not have greatly alarmed policymakers, but the increase in consumer price inflation is a bigger worry. The chances of the Reserve Bank... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic growth at its weakest since 2009 The Saudi economy slowed sharply in Q1, recording its weakest rate of growth since 2009. The oil sector was the main drag on growth, while the public sector was the only area where the pace of... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure property remains on track to outperform To us, the prospects for consumer spending on leisure services remain pretty good and anecdotal evidence certainly suggests that institutional buyers are increasingly targeting leisure property. We... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal be granted another bail-out? The risk of Portugal needing more financial support is growing. Even if a second bail-out can be agreed in the run-up to the German election, it is likely to involve private sector losses. And the ECB... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imbalances widen, despite slowdown With today’s GDP data squarely in line with consensus expectations we would focus on two other points, one encouraging, the other less so. The good news is that the labour market remains healthy,with... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
