UK Economics Update Unemployment threshold would have its problems With Mark Carney having already primed expectations at July’s MPC meeting, we still expect the MPC to embark on full-blown forward guidance at its meeting next month. An unemployment threshold is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s rice subsidy sustainable Thailand’s government can afford to maintain its rice subsidy scheme indefinitely, as long as GDP growth holds up and rice prices do not collapse. However, doing so would put at risk the goal of... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the post-FOMC minutes respite for Treasuries set to last? 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing cost pressures a further boost to homebuilders The 25% fall in lumber prices in the past two months is helping to relieve cost pressures on homebuilders. Combined with surging homebuilder confidence, it looks like housing starts are set to rise... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Time to shift the focus to “core-core” inflation? Media reports suggest that the Japanese government plans to focus increasingly on the CPI excluding food and energy when gauging progress towards overcoming deflation. We do not expect this to make... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound could play a greater role in policy under Carney Following Mr Carney’s arrival at the Bank of England, the pound this week touched its lowest level against the dollar since 2010. The fact that the new Governor seems to have had no qualms about... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fears of overheating in Ghana are overdone, for now A pick-up in GDP growth and a rise in inflation, against a backdrop of hefty twin deficits, have led to concerns that Ghana’s economy is overheating. But while a number of economic vulnerabilities are... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How sustainable is the Gulf’s fiscal splurge? We’ve argued for some time that the Gulf economies should outperform the rest of the MENA region over the next couple of years, in large part thanks to large increases in government spending. But... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses faring better The recent improvement in the sentiment among small businesses is an encouraging sign that the overall economy is becoming fundamentally stronger, although changes to taxes and regulations will... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Overseas developments continue to drive the gilt market The fairly modest impact of the MPC’s initial stab at ‘forward guidance’ on gilt yields has cast doubt over whether a formal commitment to keep monetary policy loose will do much to lower gilt yields... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to wait until 2014 before hiking rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% at its meeting today. We think rates will remain on hold until early 2014, when we have pencilled in a hike. 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan may still have more work to do The increasingly upbeat tone of the Bank of Japan’s comments on the economic recovery has dampened consensus expectations of additional monetary easing (on top of that already planned). However, a... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Germany solve the euro-zone crisis? As the German economy struggles to grow, the Government will continue to resist the permanent transfers that the euro-zone’s periphery needs. But it will probably back further extensions to deficit... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further aggressive rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked both its main policy rate and the Fasbi rate by 50bp amid concerns about the currency and the outlook for inflation. Consumer price inflation is likely to rise as high... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates add to headwinds for Brazil’s economy The decision last night by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to raise interest rates by 50bps to 8.5% was expected, but the accompanying statement suggested that further hikes are likely over the coming... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
