Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak rand to prevent interest rate cuts The ongoing weakness of the South African rand means that, despite the sluggish pace of economic growth, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. We have taken out our... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s industrial recovery limited to auto sector This year’s revival in Argentine vehicle production stands out against the backdrop of an otherwise moribund manufacturing sector. But we doubt that this is an early indicator of better times ahead... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Pick-up in distribution warehouse rents unlikely to be far away Given recent outperformance by consumer-related sectors of the economy, it is little surprise that distribution warehouse property has also fared relatively well. Granted, rents in the sector are yet... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun 13.) June’s second consecutive monthly expansion in retail sales volumes provided further evidence that a consumer-led recovery is gaining strength. But, although consumer confidence is picking up and... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Hungary really turned the corner? Hungary has been buoyed by a raft of good news over the past few months. Q1 GDP data showed that the economy exited recession, the budget deficit has narrowed to the extent that the European... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Positive growth outlook masks key country differences We expect sub-Saharan Africa to remain one of the world’s better performing regions over the next few years. But this masks some key differences between countries, and indeed some economies will... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Asia’s diverging growth prospects China’s Q2 GDP data underline the extent to which Asia’s economic landscape has shifted. We expect growth in China to continue to slow over the next couple of years. For India, the worst of the... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 head for Moscow to talk about tapering The main talking point at this weekend’s gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors is sure to be the Fed’s plan to taper QE3. But despite the volatility which has hit their markets... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada softens tightening bias Although the Bank of Canada held its view that the economy will soon accelerate and that interest rates will eventually rise, several dovish tweaks to its policy statement suggest even more strongly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling There is little evidence in June’s activity data that Russia’s struggling economy is about to turn the corner. All told, it seems that GDP grew by around 1.5-2.0% y/y in the second quarter – broadly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke reiterates the party line Even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just repeated the party line in a slightly different way in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today, the message that the tapering of QE3 is not set in stone... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss occupier markets: what do the latest macro data tell us? Switzerland’s robust domestic economy is supporting retail occupier demand and rental values. By contrast, falling exports and slowing employment growth mean that the office and industrial occupier... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
