Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) & ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) The rise in the euro-zone PMI in July provides further evidence that the region may be exiting recession. But with credit conditions still tight and fiscal policy set to remain contractionary, a... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul 13.) China’s flash PMI for July was, again, worse than most had expected. There was little in the breakdown to suggest that conditions might soon turn around. That said, other, broader measures of activity... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Weaker exchange rate failing to boost competitiveness The first June trade deficit in more than 30 years shows that the slump in the yen has had little impact on Japan’s competitiveness. With exporters declining to cut prices to boost volumes and global... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Thinking about the new "new normal" There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The floodgates start to close Net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) were significantly negative in June as investors fretted about a change in the Fed’s monetary policy. Although the selling continued in the early part... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Better news late in Q2 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic activity regained some momentum in June. This may disappoint those hoping for a stimulus response to the slowdown, while also... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Colliers/Real Estate Capital Pricing Survey July’s Colliers/Real Estate capital pricing survey suggests that investor interest in regional and secondary property is hardening. Not surprisingly, therefore, the survey’s forecasts for commercial... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity not over yet Over the past twelve months or so, policy-makers have sounded more pragmatic about the need for further fiscal austerity. However, the reduction in the structural budget deficit in advanced economies... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: naira weakness makes interest rate cuts unlikely The weakness of the naira over the past few months has made it increasingly unlikely that the Central Bank of Nigeria will cut interest rates this year. We now expect the policy rate to remain on hold... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s turn to “forward guidance” less bold than at first sight The National Bank of Hungary’s commitment to cut interest rates to a new record low of 3.0-3.5% over the coming months appears to be a bold step into the world of “forward guidance”. But the reality... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are euro-zone retail rental values at a turning point? Agency data show that prime euro-zone retail rental value growth came to an abrupt halt in Q2. With the underlying macroeconomic drivers of retail occupier demand still poor, we think that retail... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The robust 1.9% m/m gain in May's retail sales volumes, together with earlier reports showing strong increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade, suggest that the economy grew by as much as 0.4% in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What will a tapering of QE3 mean for EM interest rates? The sell-off in EM currencies that has followed the Fed’s signal that it may start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has led central banks in India, Indonesia and now Turkey to hike interest... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trans-Pacific Partnership talks to test PM Abe’s resolve Japan’s formal entry into negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) today is only the first step on a long road. Indeed, the talks are likely to drag on well into next year, and perhaps... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
