UK Economics Update Help to Buy may help to re-elect The Chancellor is today meeting major lenders and housebuilders to discuss how the second (mortgage guarantee) element of the Government’s Help to Buy programme will work. While the policy has been... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiddles around the fiscal edges The freeze to some areas of government spending announced by Brazil’s government last night amounts to further fiddling around the edges at the expense of more fundamental fiscal reforms needed to... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun 13.) Mortgage lending by the major high street banks increased for the fourth consecutive month in June, funded by a further rise in mortgage repayments. But compared to May and April, the growth in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 est.) Initial estimates of Spanish GDP growth in Q2 suggest that the pace of contraction continued to moderate. Nonetheless, we still think that suggestions that Spain is on the cusp of an economic recovery... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the euro led to convergence or divergence? The formation of the single currency has prompted many of the euro-zone economies’ nominal economic variables, such as inflation, to become more similar. But real economic variables, such as the... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of monetary tightening are premature Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose even after the Fed ends its asset purchases under QE3. Credit growth in the US is slowing, but remains... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revamped SICAD won’t save Venezuela The re-launch of foreign exchange auctions in Venezuela, coupled with an increase in the public debt ceiling, is unlikely to solve the country’s dollar drought. We continue to think that GDP will... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun 13.) The decline in sales and the rise in inventories means that supply conditions in the existing homes market are now the loosest they have been this year. That looks consistent with a slowdown in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set to slow as oil boom fades Growth in the Gulf is set to slow over the next couple of years as the past decade’s oil boom starts to fade. At the same time, oil prices are likely to fall too. This is unlikely to pose a serious... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is silver set to outshine gold? The analyst consensus is that the price of silver is likely to outperform that of gold as both continue to recover in the next year or so. We are nudging our gold price forecasts higher today in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices still have much further to fall There is little sign that the Spanish housing downturn will come to an end any time soon. Not only does this spell bad news for households, it will also pile even more pressure on the troubled banks. 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far do Turkish rates need to rise? In a statement last week the governor of Turkey’s central bank, Erdem Basci, gave markets a strong steer that interest rates would be raised at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But this is unlikely to result... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s export weakness to continue Exports from Emerging Asia remain lacklustre and continue to hold back the region’s growth. As this Weekly explains, a strong and sustained export recovery is unlikely anytime soon. 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank's second-quarter GDP estimate is too low We think the Bank of Canada has over-estimated the negative impacts on second-quarter GDP from Alberta's recent major flood and Quebec's construction labour strike. Instead of 1.0% annualised, we... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
