US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Housing starts extended their recent rollercoaster ride in June, falling by 9.9% m/m. This reflects a characteristically volatile multi-family sector rather than renewed weakness, and we expect... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul 13.) & Labour market (May/Jun 13) The minutes of July’s MPC minutes suggested that the new Governor Mark Carney has united the Committee around using forward guidance rather than more quantitative easing to boost the economy... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook An improving economy will help boost housing market activity Record low mortgage rates, the equity loan component of the Government’s Help to Buy scheme and a general improvement in the economic environment have helped activity in the housing market to recover... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Investment plan another reason to expect Mexico rebound The poor performance of the Mexican economy so far this year has been one of the biggest disappointments in Latin America. In this Watch we explain why, in contrast to Brazil, the slowdown owes more... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: QE or not QE? The suggestion by some commentators that the new lending facility unveiled by the Central Bank of Russia last week amounts to a form of quantitative easing seems wide of the mark. All the signs so far... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation figures suggested that underlying price pressures in the economy are still fairly weak and have therefore kept the door wide open to more action from the Monetary Policy Committee at... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy to remain loose even with Fed tapering Our research has consistently emphasised that monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose for several years even after the US Fed ends its asset... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s consumer prices and industrial production releases had something for everyone at the Fed but, on balance, they leave the central bank on course to slow the pace of its asset purchases at the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The 0.7% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes suggests that GDP growth in May might have been higher than 0.1% m/m. As a result, the risks to our forecast that second-quarter GDP will rise by 1.5%... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s liquidity measures push policy rate cuts off the table The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) efforts to tighten liquidity have given a bounce to the rupee today. But greater currency stability, even if sustained, will come at the cost of a further economic... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EFSF downgrade adds to pressure on core countries Fitch’s downgrade of the EFSF has limited implications for the time being. But it will add to pressure on the euro-zone’s core countries who guarantee the various bail-out mechanisms to continue with... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf aid not a long-term solution to Egypt’s problems The aid that Gulf states have granted to Egypt since the ousting of President Morsi should be sufficient to cover the country’s external financing requirement for almost a year. Accordingly, the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t take the pick-up in money growth too literally Boris Johnson suggests closing Heathrow and building a new airport at either Stansted or the Isle of Grain. (He is distancing himself from his original ‘Boris Island’ idea.) There could be serious... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & Euro-zone Trade (May) German investor sentiment weakened in July as disappointing hard data and troubles in Portugal reminded investors that the euro-zone crisis is far from over. And May’s sharp fall in euro-zone exports... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
