US Economics Weekly Outlook improving for both retailers and industry The second half of the year is likely to be much better than the first for both retailers and manufacturers. Faster income growth should help households shrug off the lingering effects of January’s... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would consumption tax hikes derail the recovery? The economic case for raising Japan’s consumption tax is overwhelming. We think the government will decide to go ahead with the first hike planned for April next year, provided GDP has not slowed too... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC changes policy mix, not direction The main message from last week’s minutes of the latest MPC meeting was not so much a reduction in the Committee’s appetite for more stimulus, but rather a change of view on how to enact it. Meanwhile... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mounting strains on the ESM The lending capacity of the euro-zone’s bail-out funds is coming under strain again. €289bn of the ESM’s €500bn lending capacity has already been committed and developments in Portugal, Greece and... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No systemic risk from Detroit bankruptcy The filing for bankruptcy by the City of Detroit last night does not pose a systemic risk to America’s financial system. The amount of debt that Detroit is likely to default on is small compared with... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falls in Brussels office yields look unsustainable Preliminary data that show prime office yields in Brussels fell in Q2 are hard to square with the weak picture of underlying occupier demand. Given this, we would not be surprised if the fall in... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The modest increase in the official core inflation figure in June, to 1.3% from 1.1% in the month before, was mainly due to specific base-year effects. We expect underlying inflation to stay at the... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer spending remains on the up After being hit by bad weather earlier in the year, consumer spending appears to have made up lost ground more recently. Indeed, the consumer sector appears to be driving the wider economic recovery. 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Credit starts to slow Credit growth slowed last month, a sign that the cash crunch delivered some of what policymakers were hoping for. But credit is still expanding more than twice as fast as economic output, which means... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jun.) The underlying picture for the public finances is one of stalled progress in deficit reduction. The Chancellor will be hoping that the nascent economic recovery will change this picture soon. But, for... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to climb further this year and beyond We are deeply sceptical of the argument that the renminbi now needs to weaken to reach its market value. On the contrary, we continue to expect it to edge higher this year and make further gains in... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is gross or net mortgage lending more relevant for house prices? In the short term, whether gross or net mortgage lending matters more for house prices depends on the type of mortgage repayments being made. In that regard, with the recent rise in repayments being... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New York City house price growth may slow Helped by attractive jumbo mortgage rates and interest from foreign buyers, house price growth in New York City is well above the national average rate. But we stand by our call that price growth in... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
