Commodities Outlook Headwinds set to persist Commodities are extending their generally poor performance into a third successive year. Concerns about the early withdrawal of monetary stimulus at least are overdone, even though there may still be... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady following Q2 rout Latin American financial markets have steadied in July after a sharp sell-off over the previous couple of months. We suspect that markets will stay under pressure in the near term. However, the worst... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Stimulus plan unlikely to transform Russia’s outlook The stimulus measures agreed by Russia’s cabinet yesterday are unlikely to radically transform the outlook for the economy. We continue to expect a modest recovery over the second half of this year... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Public debt levels unlikely to rise sharply The twin tailwinds of debt relief programmes from Western governments and high commodity prices have helped to dramatically reduce public debt levels in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years. But... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The first positive inflation numbers in a year largely reflect the slump in the yen. Excluding food and energy, much of which is imported, Japanese inflation is still negative and should remain so for... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Glimmers of hope? Our GDP Tracker suggests that after a sharp slowdown at the start of the year, EM growth ticked up in May. Evidence of a possible turnaround is strongest in Emerging Europe, and weakest in Emerging... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) Despite the much bigger than generally expected 4.2% m/m surge in orders in June (consensus forecast was 1.4%, Capital Economics was 4.0%), the latest durable goods report actually suggests that... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence hints at steady Q3 GDP growth The uptick in the CFIB's small and medium-sized business confidence in July suggests that third-quarter GDP might rise by as much as 2.0% annualised. The details behind this optimism, however, appear... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Moving towards a rate cut? With indicators of economic activity improving slightly, the ECB is unlikely to cut interest rates this month. Meanwhile, divisions within the Governing Council might prevent it from clarifying last... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade remains weak The latest data show that world trade was lacklustre in both May and June, and surveys suggest that there will not be a big improvement any time soon. Meanwhile, the major regional trade negotiations... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling inflation will benefit some more than others While all households have faced elevated inflation in recent years, the experience has not been uniform. However, differences in inflation rates are likely to be narrower over the next few years than... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack First meaningful capital value rise in two years Initial yields edged down in June. Combined with the small rise in rental values, this was enough for all-property capital values to increase by 0.2%m/m. This was the first significant increase in... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fewer than normal auto shutdowns may lift payrolls Our econometric model suggests that the pick-up in jobs growth in June was maintained in July. A rise in payroll employment of 200,000 last month would be the fourth such gain in as many months. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The further weakening in the key euro-zone monetary aggregates in June has further strengthened the case for additional policy stimulus from the ECB. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in the Philippines to rise next year The decision by the Philippine central bank (BSP) to leave interest rates on hold today was no great surprise given that growth remains strong and inflation looks set to stay subdued. We expect... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
