Europe Economics Update ECB does little to improve transparency A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Great Deceleration” has long since begun Recent talk of a looming “Great Deceleration” in EM growth has tended to miss the crucial fact that the emerging world has already been slowing for several years. In this Update we summarise five key... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European property falling out of favour The sharp fall in investment volumes in Emerging Europe in the second quarter may prove only temporary. But it also seems consistent with the drop in consensus forecasts for Poland and Russia... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC pauses ahead of guidance decision Today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting was always looking likely to be a non-event ahead of the announcement about forward guidance due next week. Our best guess is that the MPC will commit... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Signs of a turnaround in South African manufacturing The South African manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high in July, pointing to a modest recovery inthe sector. But while this comes as welcome good news, problems in the domestic economy mean... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing gave the most encouraging signal to date that the industrial sector’s recovery is gathering momentum. 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update July PMIs point to continued manufacturing weakness The July PMIs for Emerging Asia point to weakening conditions in the region’s manufacturing sectors. Both output and new orders were especially disappointing. We maintain our view that fragile global... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update July’s PMIs point to continued recovery in Central Europe July’s manufacturing PMI surveys suggest that the recovery that started in Poland and the Czech Republic towards the end of the second quarter continued in the first month of the third quarter. Both... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul 13.) July’s rise in the official manufacturing PMI was unexpected, and it stands in contrast to the fall in the HSBC/Markit index which was also confirmed today. But the increase did not come completely... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar-denominated bonds continue to languish Dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds underperformed similarly-rated US dollar corporate bonds significantly in the recent sell-off. Most of this underperformance has not been unwound... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate liberalisation hurts financial stocks While the Hang Seng index has rebounded significantly in July, equity prices in Shanghai have changed little, although the cash crunch has passed. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been kept stable. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What to make of changes in labour market participation In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Monetary weakness casts doubts over recovery Survey-based euro-zone activity indicators like the composite PMI have continued to strengthen in recent months, raising the prospect that the currency union’s economy may finally emerge from its near... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: interest rate hikes delayed, not abandoned Rising inflation and a weakening currency means that interest rates in Ghana are still likely to rise again before the end of the year, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep rates on hold today... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
