US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 162,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was a little below the consensus forecast at 185,000, but this isn't going to stop the Fed from reducing its monthly asset purchases at September's FOMC... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI falls to four-year low Our EM-wide PMI estimate suggests that conditions in emerging market manufacturing are now the weakest they have been since early 2009. 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are house prices increasing by less than the indices suggest? The decline in the share of distressed sales is having an upward influence on house prices. But we aren’t convinced by claims that the house price indices’ failure to adjust for this effect is somehow... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Uranium: the Capital Economics view The price of uranium is at a seven-year low but we forecast that it will increase from $36.50/lb today to $50 by the end of 2014, and to $60 in 2015. The key drivers are likely to be a recovery in... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Property Survey (Q2) & CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.) Both Q2’s RICS commercial property survey and July’s CIPS/Markit construction PMI had a positive tone and add to a range of other evidence that the next move in rents will be upwards. Of course, with... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) House prices are continuing to gain ground. A strong 0.8%m/m increase combined with favourable base effects to boost the annual growth rate to 3.9%. But with house prices already overvalued, we do not... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wonga won’t deliver the ‘wonga’ for a consumer recovery An expansion in ‘payday lending’ may be contributing to the recent growth in unsecured credit. But, over time, the cost of servicing a rising stock of high-interest debt will depress consumers’... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia‘s growth likely to stay stuck at around 6% Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia eased slightly in Q2. Higher inflation and tighter monetary policy will weigh on the economy over the next year, and we are... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the worst now over for "risky" assets? A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The entire surge in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 55.4 in July, from 50.9, was due to an improvement in domestic activity. This new level is consistent with a further acceleration... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf aid and struggling economy prompts Egypt to cut rates The surprise decision by the Central Bank of Egypt to cut interest rates today was probably triggered by two factors. The first is the influx of aid from the Gulf, which has eased strains in the... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How close is China to a crisis? China’s economy is set to slow further over coming years but we believe that the slump in growth many are now predicting will be avoided. 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply takes centre stage Supply factors played a key role in the movement of many commodity prices in July. Most importantly, the price of WTI has risen towards the price of the global benchmark, Brent crude, as logistical... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Don’t read too much into the fall in Mexico’s PMI Both the Mexican and Brazilian manufacturing PMIs fell in July but the similarities end there. In Brazil, the PMI has a fairly good relationship with actual activity data and suggests that the... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC seemingly split on unconventional policy The Czech National Bank kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% today, but the post-meeting press conference provided the clearest signs yet that some policymakers are keen to adopt unconventional policy... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
