China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks call an end to Africa’s easing cycle The main message from this month’s monetary policy meetings in Africa is that the easing cycle that began in several countries in mid-2012 has probably now come to an end. But at the same time we do... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jun.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that GDP growth picked up by more than we had initially expected in Q2. And with the fiscal purse strings set to be loosened further ahead of October’s mid... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jul.) July’s EC survey added to evidence that the downturn in the euro-zone is easing, but it certainly did not point to a strong recovery. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update When will office rents in Milan and Paris turn the corner? In contrast to most euro-zone markets, the downturn in Milan and Paris office rental values was extended in the second quarter. The comparatively high level of rents in each market, the rising trend... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2 13) Credit growth slowed last month, a sign that the cash crunch delivered some of what policymakers were hoping for. But credit is still expanding more than twice as fast as economic output, which means... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rates to be kept on prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rates unchanged at its meeting today, as was widely expected. Recently-implemented tightening measures could be removed within the next few months, if... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment (Jun.)& Small Business Confidence (Jul.) We are not too worried about the fall in industrial production in June, as manufacturers forecast a strong rebound in July. Small business confidence also remains at relatively high levels. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A welcome light on China’s government debt China’s forthcoming audit of government debt will shine a welcome light on a murky part of the economy. Based on what we know at present, the overall government debt situation has actually improved in... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2 13) The fall in Swedish GDP in Q2, which mainly reflected a sharp slowdown in household spending, supports our long-held view that the consensus expectation for a steady acceleration in economic growth... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New Fed Chair unlikely to alter policy outlook much Contrary to the speculation over the past few days, regardless of whether Lawrence Summers, Janet Yellen or a third candidate gets the nod, we suspect that the outlook for US monetary policy would... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ‘‘Forward guidance’’ to have limited impact Some form of ‘‘forward guidance’’ is already being used by many central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. In the coming weeks, the Bank of England looks set to join them... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe picking up, Russia still in the doldrums The slowdown in Emerging Europe appears to have bottomed out in recent months and there are tentative signs of a turnaround in regional growth. At a country level though, it’s actually been a... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jun.) Net new lending to commercial property was negative for the 19th consecutive month in June and we do not think that the end of the deleveraging process is in sight yet. But with wider sentiment... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
