Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A fragile recovery The European economy has shown tentative signs of improvement in recent months, with activity indicators in both Germany and some of the peripheral euro-zone countries regaining a firmer tone after... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home building unlikely to defy gravity for long The recent condo-surge which propelled housing starts to levels above demographic requirements in the second quarter is not convincing evidence that the housing slowdown is over. More timely... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery to remain subdued The world economy is likely to grow at a moderate pace this year and next. The US should be able to withstand a gradual withdrawal of stimulus by the Fed, and Japan is on track for steady growth... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German logistics capital values set to disappoint Our view that logistics property in Germany will underperform the other main commercial property sectors over the coming years is underpinned by the fact that, in both an international and historic... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: decision to hold rates signals end of easing cycle With inflation likely to accelerate over the next few months and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think the Central Bank of Kenya’s decision to keep its benchmark interest... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is this now a “job-full” recovery? The economy has recently been enjoying something of a “job-full” recovery as employment has been rising at a faster rate than GDP. Activity will probably catch up later this year, but in the near-term... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: volatility to remain the order of the day The scale of yesterday’s intervention by the Turkish central bank to defend the lira underlines the vulnerabilities that have built in the country’s economy. We are tweaking some of our forecasts, but... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s commodity boom – an opportunity missed When all’s said and done, the commodity price boom of the past decade will probably go down as a wasted opportunity for the economies of Latin America. Rather than saving and investing their windfall... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (May 13) May’s industrial production and trade figures were something of a disappointment given the recent upbeat tone of the manufacturing surveys. Although the overall economic recovery may still have... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa's rigid labour market to hold back growth The latest round of biennial economy-wide wage negotiations in South Africa could be the catalyst for a renewed flare-up in labour unrest. But they are also likely to cast a spotlight on the country’s... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) Housing market activity continues to pick-up, and the balance of surveyors expecting a further increase in sales is at a record high. But house prices are only expected to rise modestly over the next... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun. 13) With further expansion in June meaning the BRC’s measure of retail sales has now been positive in five of the first six months of 2013, the consumer recovery seems to be gaining an ever-firmer footing... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will gilts decouple from US Treasuries? The continued lockstep movement of gilt and Treasury yields has called into question whether the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney faces an impossible task trying to decouple the two. However... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 13) June’s pick-up in consumer price inflation was the result of increases in vegetable and pork price inflation. Core inflation fell. Looking ahead, although vegetable price inflation may now stabilise... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
