Europe Economics Update The ECB joins the forward guidance club The ECB’s unprecedented step in joining other central banks in providing forward guidance on future policy is a welcome one. But it won’t transform the outlook for the euro-zone economy. 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian industry still has a competitiveness problem The recent depreciation of the peso does not appear to have fully reversed the loss of competitiveness suffered by Colombian industry during the past decade. As a result, while the worst of the... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic implications of Egypt's second revolution It goes without saying that there’s a vast amount of uncertainty about how events will develop in Egypt. But the economy looks more fragile now than at any time since the first Arab Spring revolution... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Is the underperformance of EM equities set to continue? One notable development this year has been the poor showing of emerging market equities, which have significantly underperformed developed market equities despite the absence of a major financial or... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC takes first step towards forward guidance Although the Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates and quantitative easing unchanged at new Governor Mark Carney’s first meeting today, it took the first step towards introducing some sort of... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recovery still relatively weak European and Japanese activity indicators improved further in June. However, stronger activity in these economies is being offset by a loss of momentum in the US and a significant slowdown in China... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch households sinking deeper into the doldrums Burdened by the euro-zone’s most indebted households, the Netherlands is stuck in its third recession in five years. With pressure on households likely to intensify, the country’s AAA-rating will come... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (June 13) Halifax reports that house prices have risen for the fifth consecutive month, and on an annual basis prices are now growing at 3.7%, the highest rate in almost three years. But with more homes now... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fed policy outlook shakes stock markets The US S&P 500 fell by more than 1% in June in response to growing concerns about the Fed’s policy stance. We forecast the index to end this year at 1,600, which is close to its current level, but... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, we now expect rates to be kept on hold until 2015. If anything though, the risks to this forecast lie on the downside. Elsewhere, there are concerns... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Market pressures threaten fragile recovery Euro-zone activity indicators have maintained a slightly firmer tone over the last month, providing tentative signs of an upturn in the region’s economy. Nonetheless, those indicators generally... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery still on track despite market turmoil The recovery in Japan’s economy seems to have maintained its pace in the second quarter. Survey measures of business and consumer confidence have risen further, shrugging off the recent volatility in... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America’s hidden vulnerabilities The shift towards tighter monetary policy in the developed world combined with the drop in most commodity prices that we forecast over the next year or so threatens to expose key vulnerabilities in... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery still developing momentum The run of generally good economic news continues. In view of the economy’s recent performance, we have raised our forecast for GDP growth this year from 0.2% to 0.8% (although we have left our... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) & ADP Survey (Jun.) The sharp widening in the international trade deficit in May suggests that second-quarter annualised GDP growth may be even weaker than the 1.5% we have been expecting. At the same time, the... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
