Africa Economics Update Ugandan easing cycle has probably ended Given that credit growth remains sluggish, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in Uganda over the next few months. But on balance, a combination of a pick-up in food... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) Although the peripheral economies remain mired in recession, some fiscal progress is being made, particularly in Greece. 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jun.) The construction PMI indicates that, after four months of falls, commercial property activity was broadly stable in June. This hardly suggests that developers anticipate a surge in occupier demand or... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty weighs on £2m+ housing transactions The introduction in March 2012 of a new 7% stamp duty rate for homes sold for more than £2m has contributed to reduction in high-value transactions of around 12% in 2012, compared to an increase in... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus All you need to know about the Fed’s exit strategy The Fed’s exit strategy is a work in progress that will be determined by the economic data and the evolution of the Fed’s thinking on the costs of unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policies. But we... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Ireland – a false dawn for property? News that the Irish economy is back in recession is a reminder that Dublin’s property market still faces significant headwinds. Indeed, all-property capital values in Dublin could yet suffer another... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s rate-cutting cycle is not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate on hold at 2.75% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. In its accompanying statement, the RBA stressed that it expects an improvement in... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing treads water in June The latest set of PMIs point to an improvement in manufacturing conditions in Europe and Japan but a deterioration in China, leaving global growth little changed overall. 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Little to cheer in June's PMIs There’s not much to cheer in June’s PMI data for Latin America. Brazilian industry appears to be treading water, while the Mexican manufacturing sector is still slowing. Instead, the glimmer of hope... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 13) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back above the supposed boom/bust level of 50 in June means that the US economy has passed the first of this week’s two QE3 tapering tests. We expect June’s... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's growth on shaky foundations The most surprising feature of the raft of Q1 GDP data released in the region over the past few days was that Egypt’s economy has continued to grow, despite the country’s political turmoil. However... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Negative sentiment towards gold looks overdone Commodity prices mostly fell further in June, with gold being hit particularly hard by (premature) fears of an early end to the support from global monetary policy. Industrial commodities were also... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) While broad money growth is holding firm, bank lending is continuing to contract. Although the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme appears to have stimulated consumer lending, corporate... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update CEDIN won’t solve Argentina’s balance of payments issues Argentina’s new certificate of deposit (CEDIN) is yet another stopgap measure aimed at alleviating a growing shortage of dollars. Without deeper reforms to economic policy, Argentina’s slow-burning... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more rate cuts to come in Romania Today’s cut in Romanian interest rates is likely to be followed by further policy easing over the coming months. However, the scope for aggressive loosening is limited by the country’s high level of... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
