Europe Economics Update Could a global bond sell-off reignite the euro-zone crisis? A further rise in global bond yields could push borrowing costs for some euro-zone governments back towards danger levels and underline the limitations of the ECB’s OMT programme. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Surge in exports not quite as good as it looks The double-digit rise in Japan’s export revenues in May is clearly welcome and should be reflected in higher summer bonuses. However, the import bill is also surging and export volumes remain subdued... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account data provide respite for the rand South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed slightly in Q1, helping to ease some of the near-term pressure on the rand. But the fact that the deficit is being funded in large part by short-term... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Jun.) June’s MPC minutes confirmed that the outgoing Governor Mervyn King was outvoted at his final meeting and that appetite on the majority of the Committee for more policy stimulus remains muted. However... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian protests underline economy's structural flaws The protests that have spread across Brazil over the past week have so far had a limited impact on financial markets and so – in contrast to Turkey – are unlikely to have immediate implications for... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests hit Turkish markets Turkey’s financial markets have taken a pounding over the past few weeks as the recent wave of protests caused investors to take fright. Elsewhere, currencies and foreign currency bonds have lost... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy appears to have slowed in Q1 Our Saudi Arabia GDP tracker suggests that the economy slowed to around 3.5% y/y in Q1. Encouragingly though, there are tentative signs that the slowdown bottomed out at the start of the second... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed likely to refrain from tapering its asset purchases for now 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal risks revisited The murky world of Brazil’s public finances has come under increased scrutiny in recent weeks, after ratings agency S&P downgraded the nation’s sovereign debt outlook. In this Watch we take a fresh... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out appears safe...for now We doubt that the recent bout of political uncertainty, coupled with concerns over the Government’s ability to meet the privatisation targets set by the Troika, poses a serious near-term threat to... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Thanks to some unfavourable base effects, the annual rate of headline CPI inflation rebounded to 1.4% in May, from 1.1%, even though prices increased by only 0.1% m/m last month specifically... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Financial institutions wary about renewed housing market optimism A rise in households’ optimism regarding the housing market has pushed asking prices to a record high. At the same time, financial institutions appear to have become more concerned about the risk of... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May 13) The rise in housing starts in May was driven by a surge in multi-family starts and went some way to reversing April’s big drop. Despite some headwinds, starts are on track to increase further over the... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's easing cycle probably at an end The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today probably marks the end of the easing cycle. In fact, policymakers have already tightened monetary conditions in recent weeks... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) The rise in the headline ZEW index in June reinforced other data in pointing to an acceleration in the German economy. But while expectations picked up, the ‘current situation’ component fell again. 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Beating a retreat Recent data suggest that net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) fell significantly in May and in the first half of June amid renewed concerns about a potential tapering of the Fed’s asset... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
