Global Markets Update Making sense of the market turmoil We will be reviewing all our key market forecasts in the coming days, but recent developments have underlined several of the global and regional themes that we have been stressing for some time. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May 13) May’s retail sales figures revealed some tentative signs that households are getting over January’s tax hikes and may be starting to spend some of the cash freed up by the recent fall in gasoline... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower interest rates not a panacea to Russia’s problems There are signs that pressure from the Russian government on both the central bank and commercial banks to lower interest rates may be starting to have an impact on borrowing costs in the real economy... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rest of Asia unlikely to follow Indonesia's tightening path Bank Indonesia’s unexpected decision to hike its main policy rate today reflects concern about recent downward pressure on the rupiah and worries over the inflation outlook. Further hikes will follow... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tentative rise in tax revenues another sign of recovery A tentative pick-up in tax receipts has lent some support to the growing signs of economic recovery. While the improvement is so far modest, tax revenues tend to lag changes in economic activity, so... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's behind the rebound in the yen? The rebound in the yen and associated weakness in Japanese equities reflect fears about the outlooks for monetary policy in both Japan and the US. However, these fears look increasingly overdone. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Big Six office markets: Birmingham and Glasgow still set to lag The latest FBS jobs data support our view that Manchester will be amongst the best performing Big Six (non-London) office markets this year, as it was in 2012. But given high vacancy rates and soft... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Digger sales may give early hint of rebound The high profile data releases of the last week have provided little evidence that growth in China is picking up, even though credit has now been expanding at a rapid pace for several months. But... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand will remain reluctant to hike rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today. We continue to expect the cash rate to remain on hold until the end of the year and to be kept low in 2014. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper We don't expect the Fed to begin curbing its asset purchases from the current pace of $85bn per month at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (19th June). The economic data simply... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) In spite of the sharp 1.1% m/m increase, the annual growth rate of Teranet house prices held steady at 2.0% in May. For now, both the past decline in existing home sales and the steady rise in the... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who will fill the Fed’s shoes when it tapers QE3? We expect the Fed to start tapering its asset purchases around September 2013 and halt them in H1 2014. Given the large amount of Treasuries – not to mention mortgage-backed securities – the central... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Inventory levels inch higher The latest readings from the CoreLogic and Case-Shiller house price indices show that prices have posted double-digit gains over the past year. But not all the past month’s housing news was so buoyant... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs should be worried about weaker currencies? Most EMs are likely to tolerate the recent sell-off in their currencies. In some places this may even be welcomed. But there are a few exceptions. Inflation concerns mean that currency weakness will... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political instability a risk to Turkey's otherwise bright property outlook Growing civil unrest is one factor which we have previously highlighted as a risk to the medium-term outlook for Turkish commercial property returns. For now, we are sticking with our central... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
