US Housing Market Outlook Housing market recovery marching on The stronger-than-expected start to the year means that the risks to our house price forecasts have shifted to the upside. However, we think it is more likely than not that the pace of house price... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Correction in lumber prices should prove temporary US lumber prices have fallen sharply over the last couple of months after what, with hindsight, looks like an earlier overshoot. Nonetheless, we expect prices to climb again over the rest of the year. 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Czech industrial rents about to pick up? Recent Czech data seem to show that activity in the external sector is on the up. That bodes well for Czech industrial property. But the domestic economy is still fragile and demand from consumer... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeps its options open After leaving interest rates on hold, the ECB left the door open to more policy support, suggesting that more LTROs, negative deposit rates, forward policy guidance and stimulation for Asset-Backed... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Optimism returns to the housing market Sentiment surrounding the housing market appears to be improving, thanks to record low mortgage rates and Government interventions to support the market. But the fundamentals are weak, and with banks... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to re-visit our forecasts? Two developments over the past week make this an ideal opportunity to revisit our forecasts for Brazil. On the one hand, weak Q1 GDP data support our long-held view that the economic recovery will... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch What more could (or should) the Bank of Japan do now? The Bank of Japan’s two-day June meeting (which concludes on Tuesday) is unlikely to result in any major policy changes. The Board will probably discuss tweaks to its money market operations and asset... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Some signs of stronger activity in May The past month has brought some slightly better news about the world economy. In particular, there is further evidence that the pace of contraction in the euro-zone has slowed, relative to late last... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Shopping centres: will the out-of-town/in-town gap get wider? The divergence between out-of-town and in-town shopping centre capital values is not over yet. We suspect that, over the next three years, stronger growth in rental values will deliver further gains... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mr Carney has work to do despite signs of recovery Mervyn King left his last Monetary Policy Committee meeting with his wish to restart the quantitative easing programme unfulfilled and the Committee still seemingly stuck in a state of limbo ahead of... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: interest rates unlikely to fall much below 10% Today’s decision from the Bank of Uganda to cut interest rates by 100bp to 11% is probably not a one-off. But, with inflation picking up and the shilling likely to come under pressure, we doubt that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP breakdown provides glimmer of hope The breakdown of Q1 GDP across Emerging Europe showed that the region’s economy is probably in a slightly better shape than the (weak) headline growth figures would suggest. Accordingly, we think that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Car sales main beneficiary of looser credit conditions The recovery in new car sales continues to go from strength to strength. But it is still failing to translate into a broader pick-up in consumer spending and we remain sceptical that it will do so... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Construction points to weak EM investment Construction has started the year on a weak note across the emerging world and particularly in those EMs that most need to raise their investment rates, notably Brazil and Russia. This adds weight to... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
